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Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.

It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.

Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.

Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.

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Commentaries tagged with taxes

May 25, 2025 Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.
May 18, 2025 It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.
May 4, 2025 Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.
April 27, 2025 Time to Fix Economic Development PolicyAllocating tax dollars to land development won’t cause economic growth.
April 20, 2025 The Unanticipated Effects of SB1Businesses, governments and households may all feel the effects.
April 13, 2025 The Stupidest of PoliciesThis whipsawing of tariff rates has unnerved financial markets, which on Wednesday, were toying with a liquidity crisis.
March 23, 2025 What the Census Tells Hoosiers About the FutureKeeping things the same really isn’t an option for communities.
February 23, 2025 I Am Confused by Tax ProposalsIndiana, like almost every other government in the world, taxes three things: wealth, consumption and income.
February 2, 2025 The Great State of Illiana (or is it Indinois?)Deep economic divergence has gripped the United States for four decades.
January 26, 2025 A Whirlwind Policy Start to the YearGov. Braun and General Assembly have proposed a number of changes.
January 19, 2025 My 2025 ForecastThe Hoosier economy is growing, but at the same time falling further behind the rest of the nation.
January 5, 2025 School Choice Is a Good, Not Great Thing… Sort ofThe benefits are overestimated and misunderstood.
September 29, 2024 The Soft Landing MiracleThe hard part was ending inflation without also causing a recession.
September 8, 2024 You Maybe Don’t Want to Ask How We Can Balance our Federal BudgetIt seems like we could easily cut spending—until you understand what we are spending money on.
August 25, 2024 Three Property Tax PlansThere are problems with each of these tax proposals from our gubernatorial candidates.
August 18, 2024 What would a conservative tax system look like?There are three big things we can tax: wealth, income and spending.
June 30, 2024 Silly Tax Cut ProposalsIn Indiana, a 1 percent increase in the average tax rate leads to a 2 percent increase in population growth.
June 23, 2024 Some Good Reasons for Partisan Perceptions About the EconomyThe gap between rich places and poor places is growing in more ways than one.
May 5, 2024 US Debt Will Change Local Economic Development PoliciesThere’s no tax cut that will generate rapid economic growth, nor is there some magical spending mix that will cause a big spike in productivity.
January 28, 2024 Do Record Levels of Capital Investment Benefit Citizens?Taxpayers may be appropriately skeptical about business relocation announcements.
September 17, 2023 Thoughts About Trump’s Tax PlanIn considering any tax change, first ask how it might eventually reduce the debt.
September 3, 2023 Work From Home Is Here to StayAt least 1 million Hoosiers work from home at least one day per week.
August 6, 2023 Looking Back at Mistakes with a Critical EyeI was not alone in making these mistakes, but there’s no comfort in being wrong with a crowd.
May 7, 2023 Money Illusion and InflationPrice fluctuation could cause inflation to last longer, but it didn’t cause the inflation, it simply extends the pain.
January 15, 2023 Three Types of Public DebtAll types of public debt are effectively transfers of wealth from the future to our present selves.
June 12, 2022 Time to Dump the Rich States, Poor States RankingsTax policy is the wrong incentive to spur economic growth.
November 21, 2021 Tax Debate Should Be About Value of Government Services, Not PriceOver the past two decades, Indiana cut business taxes and saw agonizingly slow economic growth.
November 14, 2021 It Is Time to Be Honest About Debt, Spending and TaxationSpending that makes us more productive often pays for itself through increased GDP that is then taxed.
May 30, 2021 Pay Shortage, Not Labor ShortageThe most relevant data is not on the quantity of jobs, but the wages that indicate whether or not there is a labor shortage.
August 25, 2019 Lessons Learned from an Economic Development DebacleModern factories with emissions don’t belong near populated places.
August 18, 2019 Disdain for Voters at Root of Tax IncentivesTax incentives come at the expense of local taxpayers and taxing units.
August 4, 2019 Indianapolis’ Wise Move on Tax Incentives Is Only a Start The problem facing America’s heartland cities is not really a shortage of good jobs, but a shortage of effectively skilled and educated workers.
September 2, 2018 The NAFTA Deal Is Pure BaloneyNAFTA effects were mitigated by changes in productivity.
April 22, 2018 A Tax and Spending AnecdoteIt is not the tax rate the matters, but rather the value we receive from taxes that informs our choices.
January 7, 2018 Relax: Charitable Giving Will Rise in 2018There is a great deal of uncertainty about the ultimate size of the impact.
December 31, 2017 Hypocrisy About Tax Reform a Bipartisan MatterAs voters, we deserve nothing better than the fruits of our electoral choices.
November 5, 2017 The Need for Corporate Tax CutsCutting corporate taxes will have an effect on wages, but it won’t come in the form of direct wage increases.
October 29, 2017 Gas Tax Hike Popular Evidence of Good GovernanceTaxpayers generally support higher taxes when they can reasonably expect better public services for them.
October 1, 2017 Tax Reform a Bipartisan IssueBoth corporate tax rates and income tax rates should be revised and standardized.
May 21, 2017 Some Hard Truths on School Funding in IndianaThere are four sources of revenues for schools.
May 14, 2017 Some Disinformation About the Trump Tax PlanIt’s untrue this tax plan is that it can pay for itself.
April 30, 2017 Retail Apocalypse or Business as Usual?Long-term change is underway in the retail industry.
March 19, 2017 Taxing Robots Is NonsenseBill Gates is right to worry about tax systems, but he takes the wrong approach in solution.
March 5, 2017 Taxing CarbonCosts will be concentratd in places and industries that use a lot of energy.
February 5, 2017 The Makings of a Trump Economic PolicyDabbling in trade deals only shifts employment, not generate new.
January 15, 2017 Who Really Pays Taxes?Taxes are borne by both buyers and sellers.
January 8, 2017 Indiana’s Dwindling Tax BaseAn adjustment to our sales and gas taxes may pave the way for better infrastructure and education.
October 30, 2016 Don’t Miss the ‘Unseen’ EconomyMaybe the best example of the unseen economy is local economic development.
September 25, 2016 A Tale of TIF, Consultants and CleatsThe costs of TIF outweigh the benefits.
September 11, 2016 Cut the Tax Cut Debate, Spend the Money WiselyLet’s focus on workers, not businesses.
July 3, 2016 Economic Development Problems are at Local, not State LevelThe unhappy result is local economic developers chasing a shrinking number of “footloose” or attractable jobs.
March 6, 2016 The Irony of Dark Boxes and TIFBig box stores kill other big box stores.
January 17, 2016 Some Cures for Indiana’s Troubled Local Government FinanceTo fund schools, parks, and roads, we must tackle three things.
October 11, 2015 Get Rid of Regressive Payroll TaxesMuch of the tax burden is placed on the employees of a specific category of business.
August 30, 2015 Quarterly Capitalism and a Tax on CapitalRequired quarterly profits reports inform investors of the state of business and so impact the price of capital, which is bought and sold in stock markets.
August 9, 2015 Who Actually Pays Taxes?All taxes are ultimately paid by households, either directly through various taxes or indirectly through price changes.
March 1, 2015 We Need to Study, Modify and Preserve TIFIn the coming months we must better understand the characteristics of good and bad TIFs using data, not just anecdote.
October 5, 2014 More Wisdom in Tax Increment FinancingThe arrival of new sporting goods store raises questions about local government policy.
August 24, 2014 Who Actually Pays Taxes Isn't an Easy GuessIt is the laws of economics, not government rules, that determine who bears the burden of taxation.
August 10, 2014 Corporate Tax Inversion Corporations should have a say in the laws that govern them.
July 20, 2014 State Taxes and a Slowing EconomyState income taxes are a good place to try to begin understanding state economic performance.
June 29, 2014 Tax Conference Was Really About Tax FairnessEvery loophole, deduction, exemption, abatement and special carve-out of taxes is designed to benefit one class of citizens at the expense of others.
May 18, 2014 Hoosiers Will Pay for Better Public ServicesTaxpayers are concerned with the value of government, not the cost alone.
April 20, 2014 Taxes and Government ValueAs with any value determination, the price (or tax rate) is only half the story.
December 15, 2013 Economic Development Studies and Tax AbatementOur research of state and local economic development programs yield some surprises
October 6, 2013 More Budget FailuresIn the final hours, it was clear the poison pill of the fiscal cliff required too much courage for our ‘leaders’ in Washington.
May 19, 2013 The Heritage Foundation, Immigration and Moral CourageGood research should illuminate, not merely support an opinion.
March 10, 2013 The Sequester of the FutureThings will get worse before they get better.
March 10, 2013 The Sequester of the FutureThings will get worse before they get better.
February 3, 2013 The Recession Is HereThere has been no quarterly decline in GDP on record without a recession.
January 21, 2013 Leadership and the Government ShutdownThe transparency of a genuine budget debate will reveal just how unsustainable our spending has become.
January 7, 2013 More Budget FailuresIn the final hours, it was clear the poison pill of the fiscal cliff required too much courage for our ‘leaders’ in Washington.
December 9, 2012 Perhaps It Is Time to Pay Our DebtsAs a great nation, we build and do things that endure and these should be paid for, in part, by successive generations.
December 2, 2012 Demagoguery and Truth About TaxesWe should be a bit mindful of demagoguery about taxes.
November 18, 2012 Thelma and Louise Approach the Fiscal CliffThe spending cuts of the fiscal cliff will be far less broadly injurious than most suppose.
October 21, 2012 Are Families an Economic Issue?For those in long-term poverty, there are two causes: physical or mental illness or some form of failing families.
October 21, 2012 Are Families an Economic Issue?For those in long-term poverty, there are two causes: physical or mental illness or some form of failing families.
June 25, 2012 Taxes for All in 2013One brilliancy of the Bush tax cuts is that they are virtually un-repealable.
April 16, 2012 Accounting Mistakes and Local Government ReformThe $206 million in late payments is about half the total tax revenue our states' woefully mismanaged townships kept sitting in the bank over the past several years.
April 16, 2012 Accounting Mistakes and Local Government ReformThe $206 million in late payments is about half the total tax revenue our states' woefully mismanaged townships kept sitting in the bank over the past several years.
April 2, 2012 The Joke's on Us with Social SecurityIf treated as a financial investment, Social Security is a really very effective way to destroy wealth.
February 27, 2012 Corporate Tax Cuts and the ElectionPresident Obama unveiled a plan to reduce U.S. corporate tax rates while changing loopholes.
December 5, 2011 Black Fridays and ConsumptionHoliday consumption today is larger, both in absolute terms (we are much richer) and as a share of our total retail spending.
November 28, 2011 The Super Committee and our Long Term ChallengesAs I write this, I am unsure what the Deficit Super Committee will have done by their Thanksgiving deadline to stall the wayward flight of our national debt.
October 31, 2011 Lessons in Macabre Taxes and Ghastly Fiscal PolicyIt is once again that time of year when children turn either ghoulish or cute (or both).
October 17, 2011 Maybe the Occupy Indianapolis Crowd Is on to SomethingIndiana’s public universities pay federal taxes, but GE does not.
August 29, 2011 High Taxes Are Not the ProblemIn the end, it is not the taxes, but the perceived value of the services they provide that falls short.
July 11, 2011 Debt Limits and Budget CutsWithout real expenditure cuts, the cost of borrowing will rise, regardless of what happens to our debt ceiling.
May 2, 2011 An Insider’s Guide to Tax IncreasesWe can raise tax revenues, but it means an end of special deals for friends of Congress and no more demonizing the rich.
April 18, 2011 Incentives, Behavior and TaxesSo the question has long been how to intelligently balance the trade-off between more taxes and a smaller economy.
January 24, 2011 The Conundrum of EarmarksFully outlawing earmarks surrenders too much power to the executive branch.
December 29, 2010 Poverty and the Census of RomeUnlike the Roman census of Quirinius, the modern US Census affects the distribution, not collection of tax dollars.
December 13, 2010 Compromise on Taxes and SpendingAt worst case, the budget impact of these actions is about 10% of last years’ deficit.
November 29, 2010 Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber MondayThe holiday season in the U.S. has morphed into a time of concentrated purchases.
September 20, 2010 Business Locations: Taxes, Clusters and WorkersOver the long run, and especially during the good times when labor markets are tight, firms worry most about the availability of workers.
September 13, 2010 The Coming Tax DebateAbout half of all American households pay no income taxes. Starting this January that changes . . .
July 19, 2010 To Spend or Cut Taxes, That Is the QuestionIt is uncertainty about federal policy that accompanies it which cripples growth.
July 12, 2010 A Modest Proposal: The SUN Tax of 2010The SUN Tax would fix all our debt problems, with only a few modifications.
April 5, 2010 Charitable Giving More than MoneyWhy not treat charitable deductions the same way we treat most retirement savings - extend the deadline until April 15th.
March 22, 2010 Growing Local CommunitiesLocal taxation does matter, but only when a resident is comparing two fairly similar places.
January 25, 2010 Low Taxes Attract New HoosiersIn this century, Indiana has seen net-migration of just about 1 percent.
January 18, 2010 Urban to Rural State Tax FlowExpenditures on schools are the biggest by far at a whopping third of the budget.
October 5, 2009 Economic Policy from a Third GraderCommunities that enjoy good public services and low taxes will grow.
July 27, 2009 California LearningWhat has happened in California can also happen here.
July 13, 2009 LOIT Maintains Status QuoMuncie's status quo is high tax, poor services.
June 15, 2009 Local Budget Woes Point to Troubled SystemLike many communities in Indiana, Muncie has some hard choices.
April 13, 2009 Paying Taxes Better than Licensing PiratesToday, just over half of all American households pay income taxes.
March 30, 2009 Incentive Paybacks Keep Players HonestHouse Bill 1338 provision requires businesses that receive tax incentives but have not met their stated jobs or investment goals to repay all or part of these incentives.
October 27, 2008 Taxes - Trick or TreatWhen my kids get something useful for their candy taxes they don’t complain as much.
September 1, 2008 The Economic Consequences of MarriageA long marriage is easily worth a million dollars.
July 21, 2008 No Simple Solutions for Property TaxesThe complexity of the tax system reflects the complexity of economic life.
April 7, 2008 Sales Tax Increase Helps Cut Government Spending“…the increase in sales tax is part of a package that cuts the expense of government.”
March 24, 2008 Process Produced First-rate Property Tax Reform“Most importantly, this legislation sets the stage for the more difficult task of reforming local government.”
March 10, 2008 Property Tax Plans Summarized“...cutting property taxes significantly, means raising other taxes, and there are only ...three options: income taxes, sales taxes, or corporate taxes.”
February 11, 2008 The School Referendum Debate“Referendums provide the critical link to local government spending.”
January 21, 2008 One of the World’s Nastiest Jobs“Tax policy changes hatch “lobbyist math” proposals.”
January 14, 2008 Property Taxes and the Sub Prime Mess“Fixing property taxes soon may give us significant, unintended benefits.”
December 3, 2007 Indiana Needs a Property Tax"A full repeal of property taxes in Indiana would be inequitable, unstable and inefficient."
November 5, 2007 Some Hidden Savings in Governor Daniels' Tax PlanOctober 29, 2007 The Property Tax Plan October 22, 2007 Wage Inequality in America - A Quick Analysis October 15, 2007 Globalization and Manufacturing in Indiana IBB Home E-mail Article to Friend Enter recipient's e-mail: "In the end, any mass appraisal effort will be imperfect. But it will be far less imperfect, for a fraction of the cost, than the current system.”
August 6, 2007 How Tax Reform Could Help Control Health Care Costs "... the tax treatment of employer-funded health care premiums encourages companies and workers to craft insurance plans that pay for as many things as possible ..."
July 23, 2007 Can Property Taxes Be Fixed?"...what our system has evolved into today breaks almost every rule and principle of taxation on the books, both in a political and an economic sense."
April 23, 2007 Another Take on Scoring the Indiana Economy "...personal income is the single most comprehensive measure of our economic performance at the state and regional level."
February 12, 2007 Is Earmarking Tax Revenues Wishful Thinking? "Important programs can be starved at the same time as less critical initiatives are awash with funds."
January 29, 2007 Decision Time on Property Taxes "...no one has come up with a way to replace the 5 or 6 billion of revenue, other than to offer a fervent hope that we can all suddenly live with a lot less government."
December 25, 2006 Changes Afoot in Corporate America "... it is the unintended consequences of laws and regulations aimed at controlling the perceived excesses of corporations that have often had the most lasting impact."
October 2, 2006 High Taxes: Compared to What? "Indiana is not a high tax state by any stretch of the imagination."
September 25, 2006 Getting Realistic About Federal Deficits "Not only have CBO projections of deficits proved wildly inaccurate in the past, but in this instance they include assumptions about future spending and revenues that almost all agree are unrealistic."
July 10, 2006 Tinkering With Property Taxes From Afar "Making local tax rates more responsive to the wishes of the locals who pay them, rather than the whims of a legislature sitting in Indianapolis, is what really needs fixing."
July 10, 2006 Tinkering With Property Taxes From Afar "Making local tax rates more responsive to the wishes of the locals who pay them, rather than the whims of a legislature sitting in Indianapolis, is what really needs fixing."
December 23, 2005 King for a Day on Property Taxes"The so-called reform of Indiana’s property tax three years ago was all sizzle and no steak."
June 3, 2005 The Tax Coffers are Filling in Indiana "What most Americans want – and what is impossible to give them – is a tax they can avoid."
July 9, 2004 Is Indiana’s Tax System Working? "Unfortunately, Indiana is likely to be in even worse shape to adequately handle a dip in the economy in the future than it is today, for at least three reasons."
February 13, 2004 Baby Steps Towards Tax Reform " ... in battles over tax policy, political considerations will have always won out over the trifling objections of economists."
November 21, 2003 Let's Learn Our Lessons on Property Tax Reform "Township-based assessment is a bad idea, pure and simple."
September 19, 2003 Some Simple Ideas on Taxes "Far from the economist's dream of a world where taxes are unavoidable, and thus do not influence our decisions, the real world is one where some behaviors are smiled on by the tax collector and others are not."
July 11, 2003 Rhetoric Meets Reality in Indiana Property Tax Reform "Most legislators would rather kiss a pig than vote again on anything as significant as HB 1001 right away."
April 11, 2003 Let's Be Realistic About Tobacco and Gambling Revenue "With lawyers' war chests fattened immeasurably, and the facade of tobacco's legal invincibility forever gone, even money says that tobacco companies will soon be joining asbestos producers on the list of extinct industries."
February 21, 2003 Taking On the Real Issue With Tax Cuts "While Democrats and Republican share a common desire for political power, their tax proposals reflect genuine differences in opinion about how the actions of government affect the economy."
September 13, 2002 Indiana's State Budget: Calm Before the Storm? "The option of raising tax rates to finance spending growth is something that few elected officials want to talk about."
July 12, 2002 Indiana Gets Its Tax House in Order "The list of roadblocks to business spending that are being removed is quite impressive."
April 19, 2002 Let's Fix What's Broken With Indiana Taxes "Let's solve the problem that ails us before we create new ones."
March 22, 2002 The Economic Impact of Inaction "The state legislature has adjourned and the first serious proposals for comprehensive tax reform in Indiana in 28 years were left lying on the table."
December 21, 2001 Keeping Score on Indiana Tax Reform "Even though Indiana's fiscal crisis has pushed it off of center stage, some excellent points have been raised in the debate over the O'Bannon/Kernan tax reform proposal since it was unveiled in October. "
November 9, 2001 Indiana's Fiscal Crisis Was Predictable "State governments across the United States are in trouble. Some have seen as much as a 17 percent drop in tax revenues as a result of the economic downturn that has snowballed into what appears now to be a full blown recession."
October 5, 2001 The Other Side of the Property Tax Debate "Empathizing with Hoosiers over the evils of taxes, and in particular property taxes, has been a sure-fire applause line around the state for years."
January 26, 2001 The Fed Weighs in on the Issue of Tax Cuts "It is increasingly clear that the debate over tax cuts is really a fight over the size of the Federal Government."

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