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Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.

It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.

Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.

Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.

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Commentaries tagged with indiana

May 25, 2025 Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.
May 18, 2025 It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.
May 4, 2025 Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.
April 27, 2025 Time to Fix Economic Development PolicyAllocating tax dollars to land development won’t cause economic growth.
April 20, 2025 The Unanticipated Effects of SB1Businesses, governments and households may all feel the effects.
March 30, 2025 The Birth and Death of Rustbelt CitiesEducational attainment is the fundamental factor leading to city growth or decline.
March 23, 2025 What the Census Tells Hoosiers About the FutureKeeping things the same really isn’t an option for communities.
March 9, 2025 A 1960s Rural Development PlanFarming and manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back, even as we hit new production records.
February 23, 2025 I Am Confused by Tax ProposalsIndiana, like almost every other government in the world, taxes three things: wealth, consumption and income.
February 16, 2025 The End of DEI and a Call to ActionHow can we ensure that everyone has equal access to schooling, health care and economic opportunity?
February 9, 2025 The Medicaid DilemmaFor every one new job created in Indiana since 2010, we’ve had more than two new people enroll in Medicaid.
February 2, 2025 The Great State of Illiana (or is it Indinois?)Deep economic divergence has gripped the United States for four decades.
January 26, 2025 A Whirlwind Policy Start to the YearGov. Braun and General Assembly have proposed a number of changes.
January 19, 2025 My 2025 ForecastThe Hoosier economy is growing, but at the same time falling further behind the rest of the nation.
January 12, 2025 The Legacy of Eric Holcomb’s AdministrationIndiana’s economy is better than it was when Holcomb took office, but there are some caveats.
January 5, 2025 School Choice Is a Good, Not Great Thing… Sort ofThe benefits are overestimated and misunderstood.
December 15, 2024 Indiana’s Commission on Higher Education Issues an Eye-Opening ReportOur current level of educational attainment and college attendance rates puts us squarely in the bottom 10 states and territories.
December 8, 2024 Sorting and Policy DivergenceWithout room for state-level differences in what it meant to be a Republican or Democrat, states began to align with national politics.
November 3, 2024 My Apology to LogansportThe city is well known as an immigration success story in the Midwest.
October 27, 2024 Indiana Is Ground Zero for Anti-American IdeologiesBad ideas rarely die of their own accord.
October 20, 2024 Lessons in Home PricesIndiana’s dominant housing problem is a surplus of homes that are unlikely to ever again be occupied.
October 13, 2024 Worsening Brain DrainThe declining educational spending at state universities should be of big interest to elected officials in all the towns around public universities.
October 6, 2024 Thinking About Marijuana LegalizationIndiana may look to neighboring states when considering policies and effects.
September 22, 2024 Indiana’s Small Towns Need More ImmigrantsMany Midwestern counties are in their fourth or fifth decade of population decline.
September 15, 2024 IEDC’s Unhappy 20th AnniversaryIndiana must become a place where education and skills of people form the central mission of state and local economic development policies.
September 8, 2024 You Maybe Don’t Want to Ask How We Can Balance our Federal BudgetIt seems like we could easily cut spending—until you understand what we are spending money on.
September 1, 2024 Urban Growth Dominates the US Economy – and Puts Rural Places at RiskEducation becomes more important as more people become educated.
August 25, 2024 Three Property Tax PlansThere are problems with each of these tax proposals from our gubernatorial candidates.
August 18, 2024 What would a conservative tax system look like?There are three big things we can tax: wealth, income and spending.
August 4, 2024 Childcare Problems Are Vexing and CostlyIndiana has both childcare and pre-kindergarten programs available to low-income households.
July 21, 2024 Why Don’t We Learn from Economic Development Failures?Educational attainment alone is now a more powerful predictor of a region’s economic success than everything else combined.
June 30, 2024 Silly Tax Cut ProposalsIn Indiana, a 1 percent increase in the average tax rate leads to a 2 percent increase in population growth.
June 23, 2024 Some Good Reasons for Partisan Perceptions About the EconomyThe gap between rich places and poor places is growing in more ways than one.
June 9, 2024 Advice for Young People Heading Directly into the Labor MarketSkipping college does not mean you cannot have a satisfying career, but it will take more planning and work to get there.
June 2, 2024 Regional Cities Initiative, an Economic BoonBehind the concept was a clear understanding that most economic growth was happening in cities with solid quality-of-life investments.
May 19, 2024 The End of Noncompete ClausesBusinesses that have shielded themselves from competition through noncompete clauses will need to do better.
May 5, 2024 US Debt Will Change Local Economic Development PoliciesThere’s no tax cut that will generate rapid economic growth, nor is there some magical spending mix that will cause a big spike in productivity.
April 28, 2024 We Botched Our Last Curriculum Reform, We Cannot Do So This TimeA very good idea can become very bad public policy when executed poorly.
April 21, 2024 Some Thoughts on the Caitlin Clark EffectAdvance ticket sales for WNBA games in Indianapolis are at record levels—and record prices.
April 14, 2024 The Midwest Is Struggling in the Post-COVID WorldWe are chasing past economic glories rather than pursuing economic opportunities of the future.
April 7, 2024 What Caused the Midwest to Thrive? EducationIndiana was universally literate before England was.
March 31, 2024 The Political Economy of InflationThe public seems to prefer high unemployment to high inflation.
March 24, 2024 The Lasting Effect of the KKK in IndianaIndiana had the highest share of residents in the Klan at any time in history.
March 17, 2024 Deep Ideological Chasm Behind SB202 Will RemainThe central fight over ideological bias on campus involves two competing visions of the world.
March 3, 2024 Indiana Needs More Municipal FlexibilityCities aren’t just critical to Indiana’s economy, they are the future of Indiana’s economy.
February 25, 2024 SB202 Offers the Wrong Solutions to a Real ProblemMy reference to ideological imbalance refers to the creation of an artificial close-mindedness that stifles debate, isolates important perspectives and diminishes the richness of a college education.
February 11, 2024 Some More Truth About Manufacturing and TradeManufacturing employment peaked decades earlier than manufacturing production.
February 4, 2024 Libertarians Going CrazyLibertarian viewpoints offer us a useful reminder of what restraints we must put upon those who govern us.
January 28, 2024 Do Record Levels of Capital Investment Benefit Citizens?Taxpayers may be appropriately skeptical about business relocation announcements.
January 21, 2024 Small School Corporations Face Some Tough ChoicesStudent opportunities and outcomes increase and operational costs decrease when corporations approach optimal enrollment levels.
January 14, 2024 Thinking Hard About the IREAD TestAbout one in five Hoosier 3rd graders fail to pass the statewide reading test.
January 7, 2024 What Does New GDP Data Tell Us About the Hoosier Economy?More than half of all the state’s new residents since 2020 live in one of two counties.
December 10, 2023 Manufacturing Matters, but Not for Creating JobsManufacturing is important because it is the source of a significant share of regional productivity growth.
November 5, 2023 Municipal Elections Are Critical to Your ProsperityIn Indiana’s cities, like most cities nationwide, the problems mayors face aren’t partisan issues.
October 22, 2023 Economic Perceptions Driven by Educational and Geographic Differences in ProsperityThe geography of economic opportunity is shrinking.
October 8, 2023 Falling Behind Mississippi Indiana now sends 52.9 percent of high school graduates to college, while Mississippi sends 81 percent.
September 24, 2023 Don’t Expect the UAW to GrowThere is no evidence of a resurgence in the UAW or other industrial unions today.
September 3, 2023 Work From Home Is Here to StayAt least 1 million Hoosiers work from home at least one day per week.
August 27, 2023 Indiana’s Hospital Monopolies Are WorseningBetween 2019 and 2021, the average American saw a $10 increase in hospital charges, compared to an increase of $175 per Hoosier.
August 20, 2023 Face the Fact: Factory Jobs Aren’t Coming BackFor every factory job Indiana lost since 1973, other industries created seven more jobs.
August 13, 2023 A More Thoughtful Understanding of Quality of LifeRunning through a hypothetical list of amenities is the worst way to think about improving quality of life.
August 6, 2023 Looking Back at Mistakes with a Critical EyeI was not alone in making these mistakes, but there’s no comfort in being wrong with a crowd.
July 30, 2023 The Midwest Doesn’t Have a Housing Crisis, It Has a Neighborhood CrisisIn many areas, a new home cannot sell for the cost of construction.
July 16, 2023 Job Creation Numbers Are DeceptiveOnly a small percentage of new jobs are due to state and local economic development efforts.
June 25, 2023 Growing and Declining Places Have Different ChallengesThe Midwest came of age at a time when natural amenities and recreational opportunities played only a modest role in prosperity or migration.
June 18, 2023 New Labor Market Data Is Eye Opening But Under UsedThere’s been more data created on labor and education in the past 25 years than in the preceding 25 centuries.
June 11, 2023 “Of Boys and Men” by Richard Reeves Is a Must ReadThe gender gap in education is larger than any racial or ethnic gap.
June 4, 2023 Increasing Importance of Summer JobsThese jobs offer an opportunity to learn as well as earn money.
May 28, 2023 Educational Attainment, the 21st Century Fund and the Future of SchoolingIndiana ranks 42nd in educational attainment.
May 21, 2023 Big Savings for Ending Prevailing WageMy statistical models show that repealing state prevailing wage laws save taxpayers money.
May 14, 2023 Re-Thinking Economic Development A large share of the most mobile families—perhaps half—no longer need to live near where they work.
May 7, 2023 Money Illusion and InflationPrice fluctuation could cause inflation to last longer, but it didn’t cause the inflation, it simply extends the pain.
April 30, 2023 A Good Post-COVID Run for the Hoosier EconomyIndiana entered COVID with an already weakening economy.
April 9, 2023 Some More Truth About Hospital MonopoliesWhy do not-for-profit hospitals show annual profits of 20 to 30 percent?
March 5, 2023 The Amish in IndianaIt is hard not to draw similarities between the Amish and newer immigrant groups.
February 26, 2023 Subsidizing Builders Fixes the Wrong Housing ProblemRemote workers and their families can now live wherever they wish.
February 12, 2023 What Is Happening to Labor Supply?Wishing to employ someone is not the same as labor demand.
February 5, 2023 HB1004 Would Restrict Hospital MonopoliesIndiana’s not-for-profit hospitals are among the most profitable businesses in the United States.
January 22, 2023 Some Labor Market Facts You Won’t Read ElsewhereIndiana is simply not producing a 21st century workforce.
December 18, 2022 The Anderson Family Scholar HouseThe best assistance for a family comes comprehensively.
December 11, 2022 READI Grant Is Great for Most of IndianaBusinesses and households value public services more highly than public infrastructure spending.
December 4, 2022 Inflation Will Make the Legislature’s Job Difficult This YearThe budget challenges faced by state legislatures are twofold.
November 27, 2022 Economic Optimism and Worry on ThanksgivingThe balance of power between freedom and tyranny has never been this favorable.
November 13, 2022 The Timing of Economic PolicyCentral planning of economic activity likely will result in wasteful, ineffective policies.
November 6, 2022 Adopt the Governor’s Public Health Commission Report Proposals Hoosier health problems are in areas that are the most susceptible to public health interventions.
October 9, 2022 A Recession Is Time to Think About the Long TermManufacturing employment is now a smaller part of our economy than it was in previous downturns.
September 4, 2022 Lingering Effects of COVID on WorkThe U.S. is still about 1.0 percent below its pre-COVID participation rate.
August 14, 2022 SB1 Will Be Deeply Damaging to Indiana’s EconomyPublic policy is about trade-offs, it is just imperative to know what they are.
August 7, 2022 It Is Time to Face the Facts About Factory JobsThe education and skills of today’s displaced factory workers don’t match the many available jobs nationwide.
July 31, 2022 Trying to Measure the Effect of Abortion Bans on Our EconomyThe effect we see right now is vastly different from what we’ll see in a few years.
July 24, 2022 Why Are Rich Places Growing and Poor Places in Decline?To participate in a new economy, a community’s workforce must possess the ability to absorb new skills that may be vastly different from what they currently know.
July 17, 2022 My 750th ColumnColumns like mine are designed to help people think about issues they might otherwise not read about.
June 19, 2022 Yes, State Stimulus Checks Boost InflationTax reductions and rebates can only increase inflation.
June 12, 2022 Time to Dump the Rich States, Poor States RankingsTax policy is the wrong incentive to spur economic growth.
June 5, 2022 Mindless Economic Development Strategy?Much of what you see and read about these jobs announcements is raw political fiction.
May 22, 2022 The Undersupply of College Graduates Is Clobbering Indiana’s EconomyNationwide, about 8 in 10 of all net new jobs go to 4-year college graduates.
May 1, 2022 Lilly CEO Speaks to Indiana’s FutureIndiana must better educate a higher share of its young adults and make more communities into places they’d like to live.
April 24, 2022 Ending Hospital Monopolies Is Needed to Restore Free MarketsThe economic argument against monopoly power is that it interferes with the free functioning of markets.
March 27, 2022 A Tough Two Decades for the Hoosier EconomyMost of Indiana’s job growth this century has been in low-wage work.
February 6, 2022 Some Surprising Lessons from COVID Learning LossThe median school saw pass rates on standardized tests drop by more than 10 percent.
January 23, 2022 Indiana’s Long-Term Economic Prospects Are PoorState policymakers should be deeply alarmed about a return to a ‘normal’ economy.
January 9, 2022 IU Health’s Price Freeze Is a GimmickThe medical provider has become a strong regional monopoly in many parts of the state.
December 19, 2021 READI Grant a Big Success and Important PolicyClusters of cities and counties do better with sharing ideas, vetting proposals and hiring talented staff.
December 12, 2021 The 2022 ForecastFrom retail and restaurants to logistics and manufacturing firms, the U.S. economy has been astonishingly resilient.
November 7, 2021 READI Grants Already a SuccessThe READI Grant program asks communities to identify and prioritize their long-term development projects.
October 24, 2021 Deep Worries About Education and Employment Are Still With UsIndiana will start 2022 with three consecutive years of declining educational attainment of adults.
July 25, 2021 Ending the Pandemic UI Was a Rare Mistake by This AdministrationThe pandemic unemployment insurance payments were as close to a ‘free lunch’ for Hoosier taxpayers as anything we’ll ever receive.
June 27, 2021 School Choice, Cost Savings and Educational SpendingIndiana adopted universal school choice a little more than a decade ago.
May 30, 2021 Pay Shortage, Not Labor ShortageThe most relevant data is not on the quantity of jobs, but the wages that indicate whether or not there is a labor shortage.
March 28, 2021 What Will This Economic Recovery Yield for Indiana?The quest to better fund schools and improve our workforce cannot become a partisan issue.
March 21, 2021 Let’s Be Honest About the COVID Relief BillToo little stimulus is far worse than too much.
March 7, 2021 Our Biggest Economic Challenge Is School Funding Better educational attainment both causes and is caused by a better economy.
February 28, 2021 Teacher Pay Is the Symptom of Deeper ProblemsState spending per Hoosier student is down more than 7.0 percent since 2010.
February 14, 2021 Stop Restricting Indianapolis GrowthIn the 21st century, a full 85 percent of the state’s population growth happened within the Indianapolis metro area.
October 25, 2020 Indiana’s Hidden Fiscal DeficitSince 2009, Indiana slipped in every key measure of long-term growth.
April 26, 2020 Covid-19 Response May Be the Most Consequential Decision in State HistoryThe real policy question is whether the benefit of these decisions outweighed the costs.
February 9, 2020 Back to Basics in Education, and Away from Vocational IndoctrinationThe only skill that we are certain will be needed by today’s kids in 20 years is the ability to learn and master new skills.
January 26, 2020 Hospital Monopolies Are an Urgent Legislative ProblemHealthcare often costs more than many families’ property and income taxes combined.
December 22, 2019 Yes, Virginia, There Is a Hospital Monopoly Problem in IndianaThe typical Hoosier is spending $746 per year more on healthcare than they should be.
December 8, 2019 The Recovery Has Not Been Kind to IndianaIndiana should have enjoyed a far more robust economic recovery.
December 1, 2019 Economic Policies Stuck in the 1960sToday, we have fewer of the ‘footloose’ jobs and more of the ‘non-footloose’ jobs that depend on local sales.
October 27, 2019 Indiana’s Human Capital Policies Are Causing Brain Drain and Weakening Our EconomyThe nation may not slip into recession, but Indiana now has.
October 6, 2019 Fixing Our Hospital Monopoly ProblemWe have a serious hospital monopoly problem in need of immediate attention.
September 29, 2019 Indiana Has a Hospital Monopoly ProblemThe most profitable industry in our state pays no property tax, no income tax, but overcharges schools, city and county governments for healthcare.
August 4, 2019 Indianapolis’ Wise Move on Tax Incentives Is Only a Start The problem facing America’s heartland cities is not really a shortage of good jobs, but a shortage of effectively skilled and educated workers.
July 14, 2019 Economic Research Points the Way for Different Education PolicyThis column is part of my effort to draw out two or three critical lessons from the last two or three decades and tie them to state policies.
June 16, 2019 My Talk to School SuperintendentsFuture job skills are likely to demand more fundamental learning.
May 19, 2019 Our New Immigration StudyNew immigrants in Indiana should be especially welcomed.
May 5, 2019 Data on Productivity Sends an Ominous Warning to Indiana’s EconomyThe slowdown in GDP growth since the Great Recession is a puzzle with many potential causes.
April 28, 2019 Immigration Was the Bright Spot in the 2018 Indiana Population DataOnly 15 of Indiana’s 92 counties grew faster than the nation as a whole.
April 21, 2019 Casino Bill is About Taxes, Not JobsCasinos do not create jobs; they simply move employees from one business to another.
April 14, 2019 We Need to Send 10,000 More Hoosier Kids to College Next YearIf only 20 percent of the gains of higher education are due to actual learning or acquired skills, it may still be the best investment our state and local governments can make.
March 3, 2019 Some Unpleasant News on Education Spending PrioritiesThe State of Indiana funds K-12 education, and school boards pay teachers.
February 24, 2019 Poor Policy Has Weakened Indiana’s EconomyA return “to trend” is not good news for Indiana.
February 17, 2019 Housing Demand in Indiana’s CommunitiesThe traditional economic factors of supply and demand explain nearly all new home construction in Indiana’s counties.
January 6, 2019 Brookings Study Paints Grim Picture of Indiana’s Workforce Investment FocusWe are focusing our workforce spending towards yesterday’s jobs and doing little to prepare workers for the skills needed to enter the careers of the future.
December 16, 2018 Slowing Growth and Greater Risk in 2019We look to data indicators to anticipate changes in the new year.
May 13, 2018 Midwest Growth Was Always About PeopleFactories came to Indiana because it possessed one truly great asset—people.
April 29, 2018 A Not-So-Quiet Revolution in Economic DevelopmentThe economic development of the past 50 years has cheapened our land, immiserated workers, and starved local governments of much needed revenues.
April 22, 2018 A Tax and Spending AnecdoteIt is not the tax rate the matters, but rather the value we receive from taxes that informs our choices.
March 25, 2018 Schools Need Bolder ActionEvery extra dollar must be spent on educating Muncie’s children and restoring confidence in the future.
March 4, 2018 Legislature Gets an "A" on Sunday SalesThe move to permit Sunday sales of alcohol is a step towards greater personal liberty.
August 27, 2017 To Afford Small Schools, Merge Small School CorporationsSchool corporations with enrollment of at least 2,000 students enjoy higher pass rates, higher SAT scores, and more advanced course offerings.
May 21, 2017 Some Hard Truths on School Funding in IndianaThere are four sources of revenues for schools.
February 19, 2017 Technology Related Job Losses of the Last CenturyTechnological changes led to a shift of 1.5 million jobs from one industry alone in Indiana.
January 8, 2017 Indiana’s Dwindling Tax BaseAn adjustment to our sales and gas taxes may pave the way for better infrastructure and education.
January 1, 2017 The Hoosier Economy Flourished Under Governor Pence Mike Pence made three important moves in his successful governorship.
December 18, 2016 The Future of Manufacturing Production and JobsManufacturing production is well; manufacturing employment is not.
September 11, 2016 Cut the Tax Cut Debate, Spend the Money WiselyLet’s focus on workers, not businesses.
August 28, 2016 More Bad Economic Development DealsIndiana communities are subsidizing new jobs at the expense of existing taxpayers
August 14, 2016 Entrepreneurship Proposal Will Strengthen INPRS and IndianaThe proposal would do three big things in the long term.
May 15, 2016 Economic Development Conference is a ‘Must Attend’ EventSchool improvement is the first step in modern economic development policies.
May 8, 2016 The Great Hoosier Jobs Lie of 2016Productivity has lead to a growing manufacturing industry, but fewer, better-educated workers.
January 10, 2016 Demand, Not Supply, Is the Drug Problem“Prescription only” restrictions are a bandage for a bigger issue.
January 3, 2016 Regional Cities and Stellar Communities Are Revolutionary PoliciesStellar Communities and the Regional Cities Initiative are leading Indiana’s economic development efforts into the 21st century.
December 27, 2015 Economic Development Too Important to Leave to Economic DevelopersTIF boosts investment within TIF districts, but reduces it outside the district.
December 13, 2015 The Regional Cities Initiative Marks a Critical Change for IndianaThese regional economic development plans are built on priority lists drawn from the expressed interests of voters.
November 15, 2015 Plans for the Regional Cities Initiative Are RevealingLet's briefly review the proposed initiatives.
June 14, 2015 Manufacturing Myths and RealitiesDespite some dips, the manufacturing industry is relatively healthy.
April 26, 2015 Less Corruption, Not Cheaper ConstructionSeveral studies examine the effects of the elimination of public construction's prevailing wage.
April 19, 2015 Indiana Desperately Needs the Regional Cities InitiativeEighty of our 92 counties are suffering from a serious decline in population and economic growth.
April 5, 2015 RFRA Impact Is Worse Than EconomicIt is simply not possible to legislate the details of the inevitable tensions between culture and faith.
February 1, 2015 Sunday Sales Proposal Needs a Closer LookThe Sunday sales of retail alcoholic beverages may be the most visible relic of prohibition, but it is hardly the only one.
January 25, 2015 Rockport Bill Is a Net Job KillerThough it may create jobs locally, this plan likely would increase tax costs and decrease jobs statewide.
December 28, 2014 Labor Markets in 2014The data indicates this was a strong year for Indiana employers.
November 9, 2014 We Need the Right Early Childhood Education ProgramsIn this case, turning down federal funding may actually be the right move.
September 14, 2014 Focus on Shrinking the Federal GovernmentMost of our current problems are at the local level: schools, crime, housing, unemployment, and poverty.
July 20, 2014 State Taxes and a Slowing EconomyState income taxes are a good place to try to begin understanding state economic performance.
July 13, 2014 Indiana Gets a Small Business RankingComplaints about high taxes might simply mean that local government isn't delivering sufficient quality for the cost of government.
April 20, 2014 Taxes and Government ValueAs with any value determination, the price (or tax rate) is only half the story.
December 30, 2012 Looking Back on the Daniels AdministrationThere were failures, successes and unfinished business.
May 28, 2012 Some Economics of Lasting ChangeThe warrior part of being a soldier is rewarding, even in the direst of settings.
November 25, 2005 Changes on the Farm "With so much healthy and productive farm land all around us, shouldn’t we be thinking about ways that we capitalize on that proximity and take a bigger role in exploiting those opportunities?"

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