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Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.

It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.

Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.

Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.

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Commentaries tagged with budget and spending

May 4, 2025 Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.
April 20, 2025 The Unanticipated Effects of SB1Businesses, governments and households may all feel the effects.
April 13, 2025 The Stupidest of PoliciesThis whipsawing of tariff rates has unnerved financial markets, which on Wednesday, were toying with a liquidity crisis.
April 6, 2025 American Scientific Brain Drain Is Now HappeningUniversities need to be free, not conformist.
March 23, 2025 What the Census Tells Hoosiers About the FutureKeeping things the same really isn’t an option for communities.
March 16, 2025 What to Expect in This RecessionThere is risk of a lot of pain.
March 9, 2025 A 1960s Rural Development PlanFarming and manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back, even as we hit new production records.
February 23, 2025 I Am Confused by Tax ProposalsIndiana, like almost every other government in the world, taxes three things: wealth, consumption and income.
February 16, 2025 The End of DEI and a Call to ActionHow can we ensure that everyone has equal access to schooling, health care and economic opportunity?
February 9, 2025 The Medicaid DilemmaFor every one new job created in Indiana since 2010, we’ve had more than two new people enroll in Medicaid.
February 2, 2025 The Great State of Illiana (or is it Indinois?)Deep economic divergence has gripped the United States for four decades.
January 12, 2025 The Legacy of Eric Holcomb’s AdministrationIndiana’s economy is better than it was when Holcomb took office, but there are some caveats.
January 5, 2025 School Choice Is a Good, Not Great Thing… Sort ofThe benefits are overestimated and misunderstood.
December 15, 2024 Indiana’s Commission on Higher Education Issues an Eye-Opening ReportOur current level of educational attainment and college attendance rates puts us squarely in the bottom 10 states and territories.
December 8, 2024 Sorting and Policy DivergenceWithout room for state-level differences in what it meant to be a Republican or Democrat, states began to align with national politics.
December 1, 2024 Time to Learn a Real-World Lesson from TariffsTariffs are designed with the hope of pushing down our trade deficit.
October 13, 2024 Worsening Brain DrainThe declining educational spending at state universities should be of big interest to elected officials in all the towns around public universities.
September 22, 2024 Indiana’s Small Towns Need More ImmigrantsMany Midwestern counties are in their fourth or fifth decade of population decline.
September 15, 2024 IEDC’s Unhappy 20th AnniversaryIndiana must become a place where education and skills of people form the central mission of state and local economic development policies.
September 8, 2024 You Maybe Don’t Want to Ask How We Can Balance our Federal BudgetIt seems like we could easily cut spending—until you understand what we are spending money on.
September 1, 2024 Urban Growth Dominates the US Economy – and Puts Rural Places at RiskEducation becomes more important as more people become educated.
August 25, 2024 Three Property Tax PlansThere are problems with each of these tax proposals from our gubernatorial candidates.
August 18, 2024 What would a conservative tax system look like?There are three big things we can tax: wealth, income and spending.
August 11, 2024 Project 2025 Is a Roadmap to DisasterThe document is alarming enough that former President Trump denied knowledge of its existence.
June 30, 2024 Silly Tax Cut ProposalsIn Indiana, a 1 percent increase in the average tax rate leads to a 2 percent increase in population growth.
June 2, 2024 Regional Cities Initiative, an Economic BoonBehind the concept was a clear understanding that most economic growth was happening in cities with solid quality-of-life investments.
May 5, 2024 US Debt Will Change Local Economic Development PoliciesThere’s no tax cut that will generate rapid economic growth, nor is there some magical spending mix that will cause a big spike in productivity.
February 4, 2024 Libertarians Going CrazyLibertarian viewpoints offer us a useful reminder of what restraints we must put upon those who govern us.
January 28, 2024 Do Record Levels of Capital Investment Benefit Citizens?Taxpayers may be appropriately skeptical about business relocation announcements.
January 7, 2024 What Does New GDP Data Tell Us About the Hoosier Economy?More than half of all the state’s new residents since 2020 live in one of two counties.
December 17, 2023 Great Economic Holiday GiftsThe end of year data is giving economy watchers plenty cause for holiday cheer.
December 3, 2023 The ‘Great Discordance’ of Economic Fact and FeelingThat Americans appear to prefer higher unemployment over historically mild inflation is not something any of us should be proud of.
October 22, 2023 Economic Perceptions Driven by Educational and Geographic Differences in ProsperityThe geography of economic opportunity is shrinking.
October 1, 2023 Another Stupid Government ShutdownShutdowns are often a demonstration of clownsmanship, not statesmanship.
September 24, 2023 Don’t Expect the UAW to GrowThere is no evidence of a resurgence in the UAW or other industrial unions today.
September 17, 2023 Thoughts About Trump’s Tax PlanIn considering any tax change, first ask how it might eventually reduce the debt.
August 27, 2023 Indiana’s Hospital Monopolies Are WorseningBetween 2019 and 2021, the average American saw a $10 increase in hospital charges, compared to an increase of $175 per Hoosier.
August 13, 2023 A More Thoughtful Understanding of Quality of LifeRunning through a hypothetical list of amenities is the worst way to think about improving quality of life.
August 6, 2023 Looking Back at Mistakes with a Critical EyeI was not alone in making these mistakes, but there’s no comfort in being wrong with a crowd.
July 30, 2023 The Midwest Doesn’t Have a Housing Crisis, It Has a Neighborhood CrisisIn many areas, a new home cannot sell for the cost of construction.
June 25, 2023 Growing and Declining Places Have Different ChallengesThe Midwest came of age at a time when natural amenities and recreational opportunities played only a modest role in prosperity or migration.
May 28, 2023 Educational Attainment, the 21st Century Fund and the Future of SchoolingIndiana ranks 42nd in educational attainment.
May 21, 2023 Big Savings for Ending Prevailing WageMy statistical models show that repealing state prevailing wage laws save taxpayers money.
May 14, 2023 Re-Thinking Economic Development A large share of the most mobile families—perhaps half—no longer need to live near where they work.
May 7, 2023 Money Illusion and InflationPrice fluctuation could cause inflation to last longer, but it didn’t cause the inflation, it simply extends the pain.
February 26, 2023 Subsidizing Builders Fixes the Wrong Housing ProblemRemote workers and their families can now live wherever they wish.
February 19, 2023 Balancing the Federal BudgetThere’s no silver bullet that will return our debt to comfortable levels.
January 15, 2023 Three Types of Public DebtAll types of public debt are effectively transfers of wealth from the future to our present selves.
December 11, 2022 READI Grant Is Great for Most of IndianaBusinesses and households value public services more highly than public infrastructure spending.
December 4, 2022 Inflation Will Make the Legislature’s Job Difficult This YearThe budget challenges faced by state legislatures are twofold.
November 27, 2022 Economic Optimism and Worry on ThanksgivingThe balance of power between freedom and tyranny has never been this favorable.
November 13, 2022 The Timing of Economic PolicyCentral planning of economic activity likely will result in wasteful, ineffective policies.
November 6, 2022 Adopt the Governor’s Public Health Commission Report Proposals Hoosier health problems are in areas that are the most susceptible to public health interventions.
October 9, 2022 A Recession Is Time to Think About the Long TermManufacturing employment is now a smaller part of our economy than it was in previous downturns.
August 28, 2022 Student Loan Forgiveness Is a Policy MistakeThis addition to federal debt during this time risks worsening inflation.
August 21, 2022 Limiting Future InflationOverreacting to inflation can be worse to the economy than underreacting.
August 7, 2022 It Is Time to Face the Facts About Factory JobsThe education and skills of today’s displaced factory workers don’t match the many available jobs nationwide.
June 26, 2022 Inflation Affects Each Family DifferentlyWe understand earthquakes and hurricanes better than we do inflation.
May 15, 2022 Inflation Is a Policy and Political ProblemWe should all be humble in our criticism of the federal government in causing inflation.
May 1, 2022 Lilly CEO Speaks to Indiana’s FutureIndiana must better educate a higher share of its young adults and make more communities into places they’d like to live.
April 17, 2022 Where’s Inflation and Growth Headed?We’ve only had one long period of rate increase since the early 1980s, so the consumer response is unknown.
April 3, 2022 The U.S. Job Creation MachineNo U.S. state, and very few cities, have more ‘global’ jobs than they did in the spring of 1992.
March 27, 2022 A Tough Two Decades for the Hoosier EconomyMost of Indiana’s job growth this century has been in low-wage work.
December 19, 2021 READI Grant a Big Success and Important PolicyClusters of cities and counties do better with sharing ideas, vetting proposals and hiring talented staff.
November 21, 2021 Tax Debate Should Be About Value of Government Services, Not PriceOver the past two decades, Indiana cut business taxes and saw agonizingly slow economic growth.
November 7, 2021 READI Grants Already a SuccessThe READI Grant program asks communities to identify and prioritize their long-term development projects.
August 22, 2021 How to Think About the Infrastructure BillInfrastructure spending reallocates jobs far more often than it creates them.
June 27, 2021 School Choice, Cost Savings and Educational SpendingIndiana adopted universal school choice a little more than a decade ago.
May 23, 2021 Thoughts on the Infrastructure PlanThis plan is perhaps too large but could be more effective than expected.
April 18, 2021 The Post-COVID World Favors High Quality-of-Place CommunitiesBetween 23 million and 35 million households will find themselves newly unencumbered by the need to live within an easy daily commute to work.
April 4, 2021 Inflation Is Not Our Top ProblemRecession effects are influenced by the tradeoff between unemployment and inflation.
March 28, 2021 What Will This Economic Recovery Yield for Indiana?The quest to better fund schools and improve our workforce cannot become a partisan issue.
March 21, 2021 Let’s Be Honest About the COVID Relief BillToo little stimulus is far worse than too much.
February 28, 2021 Teacher Pay Is the Symptom of Deeper ProblemsState spending per Hoosier student is down more than 7.0 percent since 2010.
November 29, 2020 Regional Divergence and Local TaxesIn recent decades, nearly all large urban places thrived, while smaller cities and rural places mostly stagnated.
November 8, 2020 Some Places of Economic CompromiseWe are in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, and that gives us a chance for Congress to compromise.
October 25, 2020 Indiana’s Hidden Fiscal DeficitSince 2009, Indiana slipped in every key measure of long-term growth.
October 11, 2020 The Lengthening Impact of COVIDMost states end up taxing heavily those things that were most affected by COVID.
October 4, 2020 Some Thoughts on the Rural-Urban DivideRural places are culturally and ethnically diverse and face different challenges from urban places.
September 20, 2020 The Real Problem with Our National DebtIt’s important to explain how the debt does and does not matter.
August 30, 2020 Gresham’s Law and Subsidized ApartmentsTax dollars that should’ve gone to schools, public safety and other purposes will now supporting new ‘executive housing.’
August 16, 2020 State and Local Tax Support Is an Urgent NeedWhile many businesses are able to adapt, the underlying loss of permanent jobs is alarming.
July 26, 2020 Challenges for Indiana’s Colleges Threaten Long-term GrowthSome of the costs of COVID-19 on US colleges are already emerging.
April 19, 2020 No Better Time to Rethink Economic Development SpendingCongress made clear that many not-for-profits provide local benefits that make the nation stronger.
October 6, 2019 Fixing Our Hospital Monopoly ProblemWe have a serious hospital monopoly problem in need of immediate attention.
August 18, 2019 Disdain for Voters at Root of Tax IncentivesTax incentives come at the expense of local taxpayers and taxing units.
March 31, 2019 MMT and Modern Supply-Side Economics Are Both NonsenseThese theories are a political panacea.
March 3, 2019 Some Unpleasant News on Education Spending PrioritiesThe State of Indiana funds K-12 education, and school boards pay teachers.
October 28, 2018 Thinking About the Next RecessionThe good is news is that labor markets seem strong, jobs are plentiful and wages may be rising.
June 24, 2018 Temporal Inequality Is Much Larger Than Income Inequality TodayFrom antiquity to about 1650, the average person existed at the margin of subsistence.
April 22, 2018 A Tax and Spending AnecdoteIt is not the tax rate the matters, but rather the value we receive from taxes that informs our choices.
March 25, 2018 Schools Need Bolder ActionEvery extra dollar must be spent on educating Muncie’s children and restoring confidence in the future.
January 28, 2018 HB 1315 Is a Pragmatic Fix to Muncie School DilemmaThis school corporation needs a restoration of confidence before it can achieve any real stability.
January 14, 2018 School Financial Problems an Important Issue for This Legislative SessionSchool children in poor areas receive more funding than students in rich areas.
December 31, 2017 Hypocrisy About Tax Reform a Bipartisan MatterAs voters, we deserve nothing better than the fruits of our electoral choices.
November 5, 2017 The Need for Corporate Tax CutsCutting corporate taxes will have an effect on wages, but it won’t come in the form of direct wage increases.
October 29, 2017 Gas Tax Hike Popular Evidence of Good GovernanceTaxpayers generally support higher taxes when they can reasonably expect better public services for them.
July 16, 2017 Thoughts on the Universal Basic IncomeThis program would put more money in our paychecks but also would eliminate the social safety net.
June 11, 2017 Illinois a Joking Matter No LongerThe scale of Chicago’s problems are eye-popping.
May 21, 2017 Some Hard Truths on School Funding in IndianaThere are four sources of revenues for schools.
May 14, 2017 Some Disinformation About the Trump Tax PlanIt’s untrue this tax plan is that it can pay for itself.
February 26, 2017 Are We on the Cusp of a New Federalist Approach to Government?State-level policy provides options for residents who can vote with their feet.
January 8, 2017 Indiana’s Dwindling Tax BaseAn adjustment to our sales and gas taxes may pave the way for better infrastructure and education.
November 6, 2016 Macroeconomics in Crisis?Government spending and monetary policy have focused on the wrong things.
October 9, 2016 Slow Growth Our Biggest ProblemA 2-percent difference in economic growth means a 63-year lag in stardard of living.
September 11, 2016 Cut the Tax Cut Debate, Spend the Money WiselyLet’s focus on workers, not businesses.
January 31, 2016 Facing Up to the ‘Cost Disease’Modern productivity advances have their limits in the education sphere.
January 17, 2016 Some Cures for Indiana’s Troubled Local Government FinanceTo fund schools, parks, and roads, we must tackle three things.
June 28, 2015 Some Truth about Hoosier School BudgetsToday’s funding is tied to students, not schools.
June 21, 2015 Watch Economic Development SpendingBusinesses must locate where their customers are, not where economic developers lure them.
July 20, 2014 State Taxes and a Slowing EconomyState income taxes are a good place to try to begin understanding state economic performance.
April 6, 2014 Simple Economics Lessons for Hard TimesFar too much worry is placed in the short-term ups and downs of the economy.
March 30, 2014 Where Is the Fraud in Benefit Programs?Most government assistance programs, including SNAP and disability assistance, experience abuse of 1.5 percent or less.
December 22, 2013 An Economic Model for the HolidaysRegional growth is a gift that keeps on giving through high-quality places to live.
December 1, 2013 Great Places and the Sweep of Economic GeographyOur parents entered an economy focused on factories; our children enter an economy focused on services and amenities.
October 27, 2013 The Affordable Care Act into the FutureThe ACA must work for more than 30 million households—one-third of whom are functionally illiterate, and another third of whom have no computer or internet at home.
October 6, 2013 More Budget FailuresIn the final hours, it was clear the poison pill of the fiscal cliff required too much courage for our ‘leaders’ in Washington.
May 19, 2013 The Heritage Foundation, Immigration and Moral CourageGood research should illuminate, not merely support an opinion.
March 31, 2013 A Policy ShiftIn the early days of the recession, there were two competing arguments about policy.
March 24, 2013 The Iraq War Ten Years OnThe war in Iraq was expensive.
March 10, 2013 The Sequester of the FutureThings will get worse before they get better.
February 10, 2013 The Whys of Stock PricesThe shedding of 8 million unneeded workers boosted profits for lots of businesses.
January 21, 2013 Leadership and the Government ShutdownThe transparency of a genuine budget debate will reveal just how unsustainable our spending has become.
January 21, 2013 Leadership and the Government ShutdownThe transparency of a genuine budget debate will reveal just how unsustainable our spending has become.
January 7, 2013 More Budget FailuresIn the final hours, it was clear the poison pill of the fiscal cliff required too much courage for our ‘leaders’ in Washington.
December 9, 2012 Perhaps It Is Time to Pay Our DebtsAs a great nation, we build and do things that endure and these should be paid for, in part, by successive generations.
November 18, 2012 Thelma and Louise Approach the Fiscal CliffThe spending cuts of the fiscal cliff will be far less broadly injurious than most suppose.
November 18, 2012 Thelma and Louise Approach the Fiscal CliffThe spending cuts of the fiscal cliff will be far less broadly injurious than most suppose.
July 16, 2012 Tax or Spend, That Is the ArgumentEconomic debates are far more sanguine, with more universal agreement than is apparent to outsiders.
July 9, 2012 Smart Cuts in GovernmentIt is often argued that government workers are overpaid and over-benefitted, but I think that the composition of the government workforce is a more pressing matter.
June 11, 2012 The Failure of Public UnionsWhat this election portends is a serious conversation about public unions and their benefits.
June 4, 2012 A Fix for Financial RegulationChanges to financial regulations have largely been focused on expanding the reach of existing and new financial regulatory agencies.
May 28, 2012 Some Economics of Lasting ChangeThe warrior part of being a soldier is rewarding, even in the direst of settings.
May 7, 2012 A Debate on the Federal ReserveIt is again time to think seriously about the role of the Federal Reserve.
April 23, 2012 Spending, Debt and Long-Run GrowthThe past four or five years have exposed many Americans to a continuing debate over the role of government spending in a recession and resurrected for them the ghosts of many long-dead economists.
April 16, 2012 Accounting Mistakes and Local Government ReformThe $206 million in late payments is about half the total tax revenue our states' woefully mismanaged townships kept sitting in the bank over the past several years.
August 8, 2011 Some Cuts in the Budget DealWe need a long spell of more hiring before we tackle the supposed evils of wealth.
July 25, 2011 The Debt Ceiling, Subsidies and the Pain of DefaultWe should end oil subsidies, but this would allow the U.S. to pay off its debt in only 371 more years (if we could stop interest payments).
July 11, 2011 Debt Limits and Budget CutsWithout real expenditure cuts, the cost of borrowing will rise, regardless of what happens to our debt ceiling.
February 14, 2011 Budget Cuts and WasteHigher budgets let public managers do more of what is good, while declining budgets offer the chance to do less of what is not good.
January 31, 2011 Budget Realities and the State of the UnionThe best way to out-innovate the world in the short run is to simply get out of the way of entrepreneurs, innovators and producers.
January 24, 2011 The Conundrum of EarmarksFully outlawing earmarks surrenders too much power to the executive branch.
April 19, 2010 Good Local Governance Will Support SchoolsReorganizing school districts is difficult, but we Hoosiers have done so before.
March 1, 2010 Paying for Past ChoicesWe are making budget cuts today that could have phased-in over a generation.
June 15, 2009 Local Budget Woes Point to Troubled SystemLike many communities in Indiana, Muncie has some hard choices.

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