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Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.

It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.

Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.

Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.

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Commentaries tagged with economic development

April 27, 2025 Time to Fix Economic Development PolicyAllocating tax dollars to land development won’t cause economic growth.
March 30, 2025 The Birth and Death of Rustbelt CitiesEducational attainment is the fundamental factor leading to city growth or decline.
March 9, 2025 A 1960s Rural Development PlanFarming and manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back, even as we hit new production records.
February 23, 2025 I Am Confused by Tax ProposalsIndiana, like almost every other government in the world, taxes three things: wealth, consumption and income.
December 15, 2024 Indiana’s Commission on Higher Education Issues an Eye-Opening ReportOur current level of educational attainment and college attendance rates puts us squarely in the bottom 10 states and territories.
September 22, 2024 Indiana’s Small Towns Need More ImmigrantsMany Midwestern counties are in their fourth or fifth decade of population decline.
September 15, 2024 IEDC’s Unhappy 20th AnniversaryIndiana must become a place where education and skills of people form the central mission of state and local economic development policies.
September 1, 2024 Urban Growth Dominates the US Economy – and Puts Rural Places at RiskEducation becomes more important as more people become educated.
July 21, 2024 Why Don’t We Learn from Economic Development Failures?Educational attainment alone is now a more powerful predictor of a region’s economic success than everything else combined.
June 30, 2024 Silly Tax Cut ProposalsIn Indiana, a 1 percent increase in the average tax rate leads to a 2 percent increase in population growth.
June 2, 2024 Regional Cities Initiative, an Economic BoonBehind the concept was a clear understanding that most economic growth was happening in cities with solid quality-of-life investments.
May 5, 2024 US Debt Will Change Local Economic Development PoliciesThere’s no tax cut that will generate rapid economic growth, nor is there some magical spending mix that will cause a big spike in productivity.
April 14, 2024 The Midwest Is Struggling in the Post-COVID WorldWe are chasing past economic glories rather than pursuing economic opportunities of the future.
April 7, 2024 What Caused the Midwest to Thrive? EducationIndiana was universally literate before England was.
January 28, 2024 Do Record Levels of Capital Investment Benefit Citizens?Taxpayers may be appropriately skeptical about business relocation announcements.
January 21, 2024 Small School Corporations Face Some Tough ChoicesStudent opportunities and outcomes increase and operational costs decrease when corporations approach optimal enrollment levels.
January 14, 2024 Thinking Hard About the IREAD TestAbout one in five Hoosier 3rd graders fail to pass the statewide reading test.
October 22, 2023 Economic Perceptions Driven by Educational and Geographic Differences in ProsperityThe geography of economic opportunity is shrinking.
September 10, 2023 China Is a Poor and Failing NationChina is getting in the way of its own economic growth.
September 3, 2023 Work From Home Is Here to StayAt least 1 million Hoosiers work from home at least one day per week.
August 20, 2023 Face the Fact: Factory Jobs Aren’t Coming BackFor every factory job Indiana lost since 1973, other industries created seven more jobs.
August 13, 2023 A More Thoughtful Understanding of Quality of LifeRunning through a hypothetical list of amenities is the worst way to think about improving quality of life.
July 30, 2023 The Midwest Doesn’t Have a Housing Crisis, It Has a Neighborhood CrisisIn many areas, a new home cannot sell for the cost of construction.
July 16, 2023 Job Creation Numbers Are DeceptiveOnly a small percentage of new jobs are due to state and local economic development efforts.
July 9, 2023 Human Capital Is the Source of ProsperitySuccessful places are both good for business and good for families.
May 14, 2023 Re-Thinking Economic Development A large share of the most mobile families—perhaps half—no longer need to live near where they work.
April 23, 2023 Economic Opportunity Is Now in High Quality of Life PlacesAs Americans grew richer, we began to value more than just economic opportunity in our location choices.
April 2, 2023 The Five Skills Employers Tell Me They NeedI’ve asked countless numbers of leaders in business, government, military, and organizations.
March 19, 2023 Remote Work Through the Eyes of Three 20-SomethingsRemote work is here to stay.
February 26, 2023 Subsidizing Builders Fixes the Wrong Housing ProblemRemote workers and their families can now live wherever they wish.
January 22, 2023 Some Labor Market Facts You Won’t Read ElsewhereIndiana is simply not producing a 21st century workforce.
January 15, 2023 Three Types of Public DebtAll types of public debt are effectively transfers of wealth from the future to our present selves.
December 11, 2022 READI Grant Is Great for Most of IndianaBusinesses and households value public services more highly than public infrastructure spending.
October 9, 2022 A Recession Is Time to Think About the Long TermManufacturing employment is now a smaller part of our economy than it was in previous downturns.
August 7, 2022 It Is Time to Face the Facts About Factory JobsThe education and skills of today’s displaced factory workers don’t match the many available jobs nationwide.
July 24, 2022 Why Are Rich Places Growing and Poor Places in Decline?To participate in a new economy, a community’s workforce must possess the ability to absorb new skills that may be vastly different from what they currently know.
July 17, 2022 My 750th ColumnColumns like mine are designed to help people think about issues they might otherwise not read about.
July 10, 2022 The Tensions of Economic Policy in a Volatile TimeDiffering political views can lead to very different policy choices.
June 12, 2022 Time to Dump the Rich States, Poor States RankingsTax policy is the wrong incentive to spur economic growth.
June 5, 2022 Mindless Economic Development Strategy?Much of what you see and read about these jobs announcements is raw political fiction.
May 22, 2022 The Undersupply of College Graduates Is Clobbering Indiana’s EconomyNationwide, about 8 in 10 of all net new jobs go to 4-year college graduates.
May 1, 2022 Lilly CEO Speaks to Indiana’s FutureIndiana must better educate a higher share of its young adults and make more communities into places they’d like to live.
April 3, 2022 The U.S. Job Creation MachineNo U.S. state, and very few cities, have more ‘global’ jobs than they did in the spring of 1992.
March 20, 2022 Quality of Life Spending Is a Conservative PolicyHome prices and wages signal the desirability of communities.
December 19, 2021 READI Grant a Big Success and Important PolicyClusters of cities and counties do better with sharing ideas, vetting proposals and hiring talented staff.
November 7, 2021 READI Grants Already a SuccessThe READI Grant program asks communities to identify and prioritize their long-term development projects.
July 11, 2021 What Is ‘Quality of Place?’When choosing a place to live, workers consider the wages they will earn against the cost of housing and access to amenities.
June 13, 2021 Some Early Census Results for IndianaPeople are the driving force of economic growth.
April 25, 2021 Polarization of Jobs and PlacesUnfortunately, short-term spending policies aren't likely have much long-term effect on the decline of middle-wage jobs.
April 18, 2021 The Post-COVID World Favors High Quality-of-Place CommunitiesBetween 23 million and 35 million households will find themselves newly unencumbered by the need to live within an easy daily commute to work.
April 11, 2021 Economic Development Should Be About Value, Not CostIn the late 1970s–80s, you were taught that low tax rates and capital investment were the key to growth and prosperity, but that theory has not panned out as anticipated.
November 29, 2020 Regional Divergence and Local TaxesIn recent decades, nearly all large urban places thrived, while smaller cities and rural places mostly stagnated.
October 18, 2020 Honest Self-Assessment Key to Future Growth If community leaders are focused on the short term, there is a natural tendency to ignore long term problems.
August 30, 2020 Gresham’s Law and Subsidized ApartmentsTax dollars that should’ve gone to schools, public safety and other purposes will now supporting new ‘executive housing.’
February 23, 2020 Returning to Economic Growth Requires PatienceThere are no quick solutions, only long ones.
January 12, 2020 Fixing Regional InequalityMarket forces dictate much of the advantages and disadvantages of each place.
December 1, 2019 Economic Policies Stuck in the 1960sToday, we have fewer of the ‘footloose’ jobs and more of the ‘non-footloose’ jobs that depend on local sales.
October 13, 2019 What Can Economic Development Research Do for Your Community?Nearly 70 million Americans live in counties that are losing population.
August 25, 2019 Lessons Learned from an Economic Development DebacleModern factories with emissions don’t belong near populated places.
April 7, 2019 Diverging Regional EconomiesThe places that are most eager to attract new factories are far less likely to get them.
March 17, 2019 Beware Panacea for Economic GrowthAs a stand-alone feature of economic growth, only human capital matters.
January 6, 2019 Brookings Study Paints Grim Picture of Indiana’s Workforce Investment FocusWe are focusing our workforce spending towards yesterday’s jobs and doing little to prepare workers for the skills needed to enter the careers of the future.
December 30, 2018 Understanding Job Numbers in 2018An announcement of new jobs reflects only one small part of the total job creation and destruction that occurs in an economy.
December 23, 2018 Thinking About Economic Growth Like an EconomistEconomists and businesses think about community growth in very different ways.
November 18, 2018 Amazon LessonsThe clearest lesson of Amazon is that people matter to business location decisions, probably more than everything else combined.
September 30, 2018 Broadband Funding the Right Move, for Unexpected ReasonsMeasures of regional inequality were worse due to the absence of this technology.
September 23, 2018 Critiques of Capitalism All About State and Local PoliciesYoung people turning to our workforce development system will find it focused wholly on supplying workers to businesses rather than offering a resource for career-minded adults.
August 5, 2018 Midwest Must Save Middle Class NeighborhoodsIf your community isn’t thriving, your problems are far deeper than you suppose.
June 17, 2018 Midwest Communities Need Fact-Based Leadership, Not BromidesFar too many people view their city or county as a business with a marketing problem.
April 29, 2018 A Not-So-Quiet Revolution in Economic DevelopmentThe economic development of the past 50 years has cheapened our land, immiserated workers, and starved local governments of much needed revenues.
March 11, 2018 Rustbelt Cities Must Focus on Middle Class NeighborhoodsSchool quality is always the most pressing issue for middle class neighborhoods, but other amenities matter. The cost of improving amenities in communities that are likely to survive for several decades is very small.
February 4, 2018 Most Indiana Counties Should Stop Pursuing Economic GrowthEighty or more Indiana counties are in absolute or relative decline.
October 22, 2017 Rustbelt Was Losing People Long Before They Lost Factory JobsIn the 1960s, population decline was already evident in the fated Rustbelt cities.
October 15, 2017 The Lessons of GDP DataPlaces that are doing well have shifted their focus to attracting people, not factories.
September 17, 2017 The Lessons of Amazon and IndianapolisTax incentives should be viewed by all citizens with some skepticism.
June 4, 2017 Municipal Pools and Parks MatterThe real purpose of municipal recreational facilities is to provide benefits that would otherwise be unlikely to accrue to a community.
October 30, 2016 Don’t Miss the ‘Unseen’ EconomyMaybe the best example of the unseen economy is local economic development.
October 2, 2016 Economic Changes Mean Primacy of Place MattersMaking cities good for workers is good for business.
September 25, 2016 A Tale of TIF, Consultants and CleatsThe costs of TIF outweigh the benefits.
August 28, 2016 More Bad Economic Development DealsIndiana communities are subsidizing new jobs at the expense of existing taxpayers
July 10, 2016 Indiana’s Economy: Better than expected, worse than it should beIndiana outperforms the nation in most every metric except education.
July 3, 2016 Economic Development Problems are at Local, not State LevelThe unhappy result is local economic developers chasing a shrinking number of “footloose” or attractable jobs.
May 15, 2016 Economic Development Conference is a ‘Must Attend’ EventSchool improvement is the first step in modern economic development policies.
April 3, 2016 Population Numbers Offer Warning to Indiana We should shift our focus from rural to urban communities.
February 14, 2016 Economic Development Policies Point to Bigger Statewide ProblemsTheir problem isn’t that they have too few jobs, but rather that the folks who hold those jobs don’t want to live in those counties.
February 7, 2016 Practical Men, Economic Development and Long-Dead EconomistsThe import-export economic base model is an outdated concept.
January 3, 2016 Regional Cities and Stellar Communities Are Revolutionary PoliciesStellar Communities and the Regional Cities Initiative are leading Indiana’s economic development efforts into the 21st century.
December 27, 2015 Economic Development Too Important to Leave to Economic DevelopersTIF boosts investment within TIF districts, but reduces it outside the district.
December 13, 2015 The Regional Cities Initiative Marks a Critical Change for IndianaThese regional economic development plans are built on priority lists drawn from the expressed interests of voters.
November 15, 2015 Plans for the Regional Cities Initiative Are RevealingLet's briefly review the proposed initiatives.
November 1, 2015 Mayor’s Election All About Primacy of PlaceModern economic development policies have been in the spotlight thanks to municipal election debates.
October 4, 2015 Lessons from a Public LectureResearch now convincingly argues that relative city size is mostly influenced by the location choices of more educated households and agglomerations.
September 27, 2015 The Lessons of Mounds LakeThe myriad problems with the proposal came to light in a democratic process that spanned several months.
July 19, 2015 Workers Aren’t CommoditiesEconomic development and business attraction are misunderstood.
June 21, 2015 Watch Economic Development SpendingBusinesses must locate where their customers are, not where economic developers lure them.
May 10, 2015 Measuring School QualityMuch of individual student performance depends on the family, not the school.
March 15, 2015 The Borg-Warner Natatorium; Repurposing Hoosier FactoriesMany vacant properties will never again be used for their original purpose.
February 8, 2015 A Re-Look at the “Creative Class”How do communities attract workers employed in the jobs of tomorrow?
October 5, 2014 More Wisdom in Tax Increment FinancingThe arrival of new sporting goods store raises questions about local government policy.
September 21, 2014 A Public Lecture on Economic Development PolicyThe changing economic landscape makes attracting people, not business, the successful strategy.
September 30, 2012 Immigration and Hope in the MidwestIt is markets, not urban theorists, who set value.
September 5, 2011 Urban Renewal, the Big Bang and Mayor BingThe Keystone Towers demolition does not mark decline, but rather recovery.
January 11, 2010 Civic Perceptions and Economic DevelopmentMany people feel perceptions of their city matters.
January 4, 2010 Bloomington Debates Downtown Chain StoresMonopoly power doesn't always hide in big businesses.
May 18, 2009 Tourism Spending - a Tough QuestionIf Indiana is to be marketed as a region, then government will be the one to do it.
April 27, 2009 'Buy Local' Offers No Protection for Bad BusinessesIn the long run, only good businesses survive, whether or not 'buy local' is the mantra.
March 16, 2009 Providing Amenities is Economic DevelopmentIn the short run, workers follow jobs, but in the long run, jobs follow workers.
December 1, 2008 Budget Realities Call for Painful ChoicesShrinking pains can be as difficult as growing pains.
October 20, 2008 In the Midst of All This Joyless Market WatchingImportant economic news for East Central Indiana has been overshadowed by financial markets.
August 18, 2008 Investment in Rail Transport LikelyExpanded rail service is good news for the Crossroads of America.
January 7, 2008 The Real China Threat“An affluent China is far more likely to be a peaceful world partner than if it remained a struggling economy.”
December 24, 2007 A Lump of Coal for Michigan“Indiana has an economic climate that fosters job creation.”
October 1, 2007 The Tough Road to Financing Transportation"Perhaps the biggest problem facing the state is the belief that government alone can solve the problems of transportation infrastructure and the movement of goods and people”
September 24, 2007 Truth in Advertising at Wal-Mart"...the savings from shopping at Wal-Mart provide more nutrition supplement than the entire Food Stamps program nationwide.”
August 13, 2007 Is the Indiana Economy Growing?"... those job counts miss a lot of things that factor into the prosperity of communities around the state."
July 16, 2007 A New Take on the New Deal"...for all of its economic failings, the New Deal was a colossal political success, and tinkering with the economy has remained popular ever since."
June 18, 2007 Will Indiana Always Lag in Job Growth? "...despite the easy answers you may hear to this riddle in your break room or hallway, getting at the reasons why is harder than you think."
April 30, 2007 Is Health Care An Economic Driver? "...the business opportunities in health care have been sufficient to attract plenty of investment without any sweeteners coming from the public purse."
April 23, 2007 Another Take on Scoring the Indiana Economy "...personal income is the single most comprehensive measure of our economic performance at the state and regional level."
April 9, 2007 Indiana Employment Update "... [T]he real story in Indiana employment growth is what we are much less certain about, namely, payroll growth in the services producing side of the economy."
September 11, 2006 Productivity is Great, But What Is It? "It’s hard to find a workplace that the information revolution hasn’t touched in some significant way."
August 7, 2006 Transition in Growth for the U.S. Economy "The best news for Indiana has been the surprising, sustained strength of the industrial sector."
June 12, 2006 Motor Vehicle Jobs: Past or Future? "Can Indiana swim against the tide and gain motor vehicle parts and assembly jobs in the coming years?"
May 22, 2006 Connecting to Chicago "...we’re all part of the upper Midwest, and the center of gravity in our part of the universe is on the shores of Lake Michigan in northeastern Illinois."
May 15, 2006 Re-Inventing Government "Economic development in particular has been hamstrung by the disconnectedness between silos of government."
May 1, 2006 Getting Started on a New Indiana Economy "The state doesn’t have billions sitting in a bank account ready to be invested in plants and facilities to put Hoosiers to work in high paying jobs"
April 24, 2006 An Early Read on the State Economy in 2006 "A solid appraisal of state job growth involves more than just picking a couple of monthly employment numbers out of a hat."
April 17, 2006 What Does a Diversified Economy Look Like? " There will likely be no large new employers coming to every town, gobbling up workers by the hundreds or thousands, offering lifetime employment for generations the way manufacturing companies once did."
April 10, 2006 Understanding Urban Growth"The health of the body is what’s important, not the health of the separate limbs."
April 3, 2006 Getting Realistic About Deficits "The fixes will involve more taxes and less spending"
February 20, 2006 Services Jobs Come to Muncie " Those who anticipate working in an environment where tasks and hours are standardized, with flat rate compensation, and where raises and promotions accrue with seniority may be in for surprise. "
January 20, 2006 How We Handle Failure Matters"The nice thing about failure, if there is anything nice about it, is that it provides you with good information."
January 6, 2006 Aligning Workforce and Economic Development"... the labor demands of the production side of the economy have shrunk to the point where the industrial sector simply can’t anchor the economic base the way it once did."
December 30, 2005 Riding the Wave of Interest in Development"... the dramatic increase in talk of spurring economic growth has not necessarily been matched by advances in the state of knowledge in how it should be done."
December 2, 2005 Economy Ending the Year Strong "For economists, reading these upbeat reports on the economy makes us feel a little like Indianapolis Colts fans do as they read their Monday morning sports sections."
November 18, 2005 Distinguishing Ourselves From the Competition"In the coming decade, it’s a pretty safe bet that distinctions between Midwest states like Indiana and the rest of the country will become more blurred, but that day isn’t here yet."
November 4, 2005 Another Failing Technology Grade "... as once backwater states like Idaho and Utah move up the rankings while we remain stationary, one can only ask, why can’t it happen here?"
May 6, 2005 Private Sector Management Meets Public Sector Challenges "If we do a poor job in providing public services, we risk driving talented people and new investment away, and shrinking the pie for everyone."
March 25, 2005 Enjoy Growth While It Still Lasts "When businesses throttle back on their spending plans, as they must do eventually, Indiana’s growth will more closely resemble its historical trend."
March 4, 2005 More Wind in the Sails of Job Growth "...the new century U.S. economy is still one of the brightest stars on the global stage when it comes to growth."
February 4, 2005 Indiana's New Metropolitan Areas "It reminds us that the forces of growth continue to push and redefine the borders of our regional economies."
January 28, 2005 Fed Hits the Bull's Eye "...truth be told, it’s been luck more than skill that brought the economic throttle down so smoothly"
January 21, 2005 Convention Centers as Economic Development "There’s been something like an arms race happening in the convention center business over the last ten years"
October 29, 2004 A Surprisingly Good Quarter "The third quarter GDP report solidifies the view that the U.S. economy is still successfully managing the challenges of its post-recession recovery."
October 15, 2004 Data and Quasi-Data "If research does not adequately distinguish between what we know, and what we don’t know, then it can fail us when we need it."
September 10, 2004 Placing Bets on Our Economic Future "... we need to focus on increasing investment by companies that do business with the world outside our community’s borders."
September 3, 2004 Best Practices for Economic Development "What communities do to attract specific companies to locate within their borders can do more harm than the good things spawned by the new investment."
August 6, 2004 Small Business and Economic Growth "Higher rates of job destruction – matched by high rates of job creation – are consistently associated with faster economic growth."
June 11, 2004 Can We Afford to Buy New Jobs? "There isn’t enough money in the public till to simply pay companies to create jobs where we want them."
May 28, 2004 Are We Missing the Obvious? "... the recovery in the U.S. economy is obvious to those of us who make a daily diet of the statistics which detail its performance."
May 21, 2004 The Challenge for Growth in Indiana, Part II "... how could we go about changing the Indiana economy so we can start climbing, instead of falling, in the rankings of economic performance and prosperity?."
May 14, 2004 The Challenge for Growth in Indiana "We remain a production oriented state with a less skilled, less educated, and less well paid work force in an economy that continues to grow in a different direction."
May 7, 2004 GDP is Nice, but Job Growth is Better "There was good news on just about every page of the April jobs report."
April 30, 2004 The Untapped Potential of Public Sector Innovation "The forces of competition that prod organizations to innovate and modernize in order to survive aren’t the same in the public sector."
March 26, 2004 Indiana’s Regions Are a Study in Contrasts "The degree to which the workforce in the 11 economic regions outside Indianapolis are concentrated in production-related occupations that do not require advanced educational credentials is stunning."
January 30, 2004 Getting to Know Indiana 's Labor Force "Outside of Indianapolis , we have retained an emphasis on production-related activities in our state that was shed by the rest of the country years ago.
January 23, 2004 Where Should Our Leaders Take Us? " ... the economy has been transforming before our eyes, from mass production to what might be called mass specialization."
December 5, 2003 Tracking the State Economy: It's a Whole Different Game "It is ironic that in this, the information age, we are actually receiving less data than in years past on states and regions."
October 31, 2003 Now That's What I Call Growth "The news that the overall economy grew at a blistering 7.2 percent annual rate during the months July through September effectively closes the book on the 2001 recession."
June 27, 2003 No Community Left Behind "In the last decade and a half, jobs in production-related occupations have not only failed to keep up with hiring in the rest of the economy, in most lines of work they’ve actually shrunk in number."
April 18, 2003 The Message in Population Movements "The development problems faced by the faster and slower growing regions of the state are quite different in nature."
April 4, 2003 Taking Stock of the U.S. Economy "From the reports on employment, industrial activity, and retail sales, there have been very few safe harbors from the stagnation that descended over businesses and consumers alike."
March 28, 2003 Can Energize Indiana Run on Just One Battery? "We're in a race to attract new capital and new residents to spread their roots in our communities, and you don't make that happen by reneging on promises and changing the rules."
February 14, 2003 Rewards to Skill Just Keep Growing "Whichever way you look at it, the distribution of income in this country -- as in other developed nations -- has widened significantly."
August 24, 2001 Who Deserves the Credit for Economic Growth? "What passes for a market economy on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, and in the state of Indiana as well, contains a stronger dose of governmental planning, coordination, and regulation than we sometimes admit."
August 17, 2001 History Offers Old Lessons for the New Economy "History has shown that it takes anywhere from six to twelve months for changes in Fed policy to show up in the performance of the economy."
July 27, 2001 U.S. Economy Still Growing, but Barely "Thanks to the American consumer, the U.S. economic expansion remains alive through the first half of the year."
July 20, 2001 In Search of Silver Linings "Whether you are a person who sees the glass half full or half empty, it has been difficult to do anything but tremble as the once-roaring engines of factories across the nation sputter and stall before our eyes."
July 13, 2001 Taking the Longer View on Economic Growth "Where will the central Indiana economy be in the year 2011? On its face, that's an almost impossible question to answer."
June 15, 2001 Indiana's Economic Growth a Matter of Perspective "We who live today in Indiana in the midst of a manufacturing-led economic downturn must ask ourselves the difficult question: are the jobs the state economy has lost in the last six months going to come back? "
April 27, 2001 U.S. Economic Growth: A Matter of Perspective? "The Bureau of Economic Analysis surprised many analysts by announcing that the U.S. economy actually accelerated slightly in the first quarter of 2001"

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