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Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.

It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.

Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.

Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.

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May 25, 2025 Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.
May 18, 2025 It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.
May 11, 2025 Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.
May 4, 2025 Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.
April 27, 2025 Time to Fix Economic Development PolicyAllocating tax dollars to land development won’t cause economic growth.
April 20, 2025 The Unanticipated Effects of SB1Businesses, governments and households may all feel the effects.
April 13, 2025 The Stupidest of PoliciesThis whipsawing of tariff rates has unnerved financial markets, which on Wednesday, were toying with a liquidity crisis.
April 6, 2025 American Scientific Brain Drain Is Now HappeningUniversities need to be free, not conformist.
March 30, 2025 The Birth and Death of Rustbelt CitiesEducational attainment is the fundamental factor leading to city growth or decline.
March 23, 2025 What the Census Tells Hoosiers About the FutureKeeping things the same really isn’t an option for communities.
March 9, 2025 A 1960s Rural Development PlanFarming and manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back, even as we hit new production records.
February 23, 2025 I Am Confused by Tax ProposalsIndiana, like almost every other government in the world, taxes three things: wealth, consumption and income.
February 9, 2025 The Medicaid DilemmaFor every one new job created in Indiana since 2010, we’ve had more than two new people enroll in Medicaid.
February 2, 2025 The Great State of Illiana (or is it Indinois?)Deep economic divergence has gripped the United States for four decades.
January 26, 2025 A Whirlwind Policy Start to the YearGov. Braun and General Assembly have proposed a number of changes.
January 19, 2025 My 2025 ForecastThe Hoosier economy is growing, but at the same time falling further behind the rest of the nation.
January 12, 2025 The Legacy of Eric Holcomb’s AdministrationIndiana’s economy is better than it was when Holcomb took office, but there are some caveats.
December 15, 2024 Indiana’s Commission on Higher Education Issues an Eye-Opening ReportOur current level of educational attainment and college attendance rates puts us squarely in the bottom 10 states and territories.
December 8, 2024 Sorting and Policy DivergenceWithout room for state-level differences in what it meant to be a Republican or Democrat, states began to align with national politics.
October 20, 2024 Lessons in Home PricesIndiana’s dominant housing problem is a surplus of homes that are unlikely to ever again be occupied.
October 13, 2024 Worsening Brain DrainThe declining educational spending at state universities should be of big interest to elected officials in all the towns around public universities.
October 6, 2024 Thinking About Marijuana LegalizationIndiana may look to neighboring states when considering policies and effects.
September 22, 2024 Indiana’s Small Towns Need More ImmigrantsMany Midwestern counties are in their fourth or fifth decade of population decline.
September 15, 2024 IEDC’s Unhappy 20th AnniversaryIndiana must become a place where education and skills of people form the central mission of state and local economic development policies.
September 8, 2024 You Maybe Don’t Want to Ask How We Can Balance our Federal BudgetIt seems like we could easily cut spending—until you understand what we are spending money on.
September 1, 2024 Urban Growth Dominates the US Economy – and Puts Rural Places at RiskEducation becomes more important as more people become educated.
August 25, 2024 Three Property Tax PlansThere are problems with each of these tax proposals from our gubernatorial candidates.
August 18, 2024 What would a conservative tax system look like?There are three big things we can tax: wealth, income and spending.
August 11, 2024 Project 2025 Is a Roadmap to DisasterThe document is alarming enough that former President Trump denied knowledge of its existence.
August 4, 2024 Childcare Problems Are Vexing and CostlyIndiana has both childcare and pre-kindergarten programs available to low-income households.
July 21, 2024 Why Don’t We Learn from Economic Development Failures?Educational attainment alone is now a more powerful predictor of a region’s economic success than everything else combined.
July 7, 2024 Freedom Is DifficultSimply living in the United States is as easy as it gets, and almost always has been.
June 30, 2024 Silly Tax Cut ProposalsIn Indiana, a 1 percent increase in the average tax rate leads to a 2 percent increase in population growth.
June 23, 2024 Some Good Reasons for Partisan Perceptions About the EconomyThe gap between rich places and poor places is growing in more ways than one.
May 19, 2024 The End of Noncompete ClausesBusinesses that have shielded themselves from competition through noncompete clauses will need to do better.
April 28, 2024 We Botched Our Last Curriculum Reform, We Cannot Do So This TimeA very good idea can become very bad public policy when executed poorly.
March 17, 2024 Deep Ideological Chasm Behind SB202 Will RemainThe central fight over ideological bias on campus involves two competing visions of the world.
March 3, 2024 Indiana Needs More Municipal FlexibilityCities aren’t just critical to Indiana’s economy, they are the future of Indiana’s economy.
February 25, 2024 SB202 Offers the Wrong Solutions to a Real ProblemMy reference to ideological imbalance refers to the creation of an artificial close-mindedness that stifles debate, isolates important perspectives and diminishes the richness of a college education.
February 4, 2024 Libertarians Going CrazyLibertarian viewpoints offer us a useful reminder of what restraints we must put upon those who govern us.
November 5, 2023 Municipal Elections Are Critical to Your ProsperityIn Indiana’s cities, like most cities nationwide, the problems mayors face aren’t partisan issues.
October 29, 2023 The Association for Business and Economic ResearchResearch discovers something no one knows about a problem.
October 8, 2023 Falling Behind Mississippi Indiana now sends 52.9 percent of high school graduates to college, while Mississippi sends 81 percent.
October 1, 2023 Another Stupid Government ShutdownShutdowns are often a demonstration of clownsmanship, not statesmanship.
September 17, 2023 Thoughts About Trump’s Tax PlanIn considering any tax change, first ask how it might eventually reduce the debt.
August 13, 2023 A More Thoughtful Understanding of Quality of LifeRunning through a hypothetical list of amenities is the worst way to think about improving quality of life.
July 9, 2023 Human Capital Is the Source of ProsperitySuccessful places are both good for business and good for families.
July 2, 2023 July 4th and American-Style ConservatismA true American conservative cannot believe that government should promote that faith, or treat those of other faiths differently.
June 18, 2023 New Labor Market Data Is Eye Opening But Under UsedThere’s been more data created on labor and education in the past 25 years than in the preceding 25 centuries.
June 11, 2023 “Of Boys and Men” by Richard Reeves Is a Must ReadThe gender gap in education is larger than any racial or ethnic gap.
May 28, 2023 Educational Attainment, the 21st Century Fund and the Future of SchoolingIndiana ranks 42nd in educational attainment.
May 21, 2023 Big Savings for Ending Prevailing WageMy statistical models show that repealing state prevailing wage laws save taxpayers money.
May 14, 2023 Re-Thinking Economic Development A large share of the most mobile families—perhaps half—no longer need to live near where they work.
April 23, 2023 Economic Opportunity Is Now in High Quality of Life PlacesAs Americans grew richer, we began to value more than just economic opportunity in our location choices.
March 26, 2023 Bank Failures Warn of Deeper Economic ProblemsDuring the Great Recession, a whopping 0.014 percent of banks were closed by the FDIC.
February 19, 2023 Balancing the Federal BudgetThere’s no silver bullet that will return our debt to comfortable levels.
February 12, 2023 What Is Happening to Labor Supply?Wishing to employ someone is not the same as labor demand.
February 5, 2023 HB1004 Would Restrict Hospital MonopoliesIndiana’s not-for-profit hospitals are among the most profitable businesses in the United States.
January 22, 2023 Some Labor Market Facts You Won’t Read ElsewhereIndiana is simply not producing a 21st century workforce.
January 15, 2023 Three Types of Public DebtAll types of public debt are effectively transfers of wealth from the future to our present selves.
December 4, 2022 Inflation Will Make the Legislature’s Job Difficult This YearThe budget challenges faced by state legislatures are twofold.
November 13, 2022 The Timing of Economic PolicyCentral planning of economic activity likely will result in wasteful, ineffective policies.
November 6, 2022 Adopt the Governor’s Public Health Commission Report Proposals Hoosier health problems are in areas that are the most susceptible to public health interventions.
October 23, 2022 The Badness of National Conservatism IdeologyA political movement that rejects the fundamentals of our Constitution is, by definition, anti-American.
October 9, 2022 A Recession Is Time to Think About the Long TermManufacturing employment is now a smaller part of our economy than it was in previous downturns.
September 18, 2022 Why Do We Care About a Monarchy?Strong, stable, adaptable institutions help us navigate change while ensuring continuity.
August 21, 2022 Limiting Future InflationOverreacting to inflation can be worse to the economy than underreacting.
August 14, 2022 SB1 Will Be Deeply Damaging to Indiana’s EconomyPublic policy is about trade-offs, it is just imperative to know what they are.
July 31, 2022 Trying to Measure the Effect of Abortion Bans on Our EconomyThe effect we see right now is vastly different from what we’ll see in a few years.
July 24, 2022 Why Are Rich Places Growing and Poor Places in Decline?To participate in a new economy, a community’s workforce must possess the ability to absorb new skills that may be vastly different from what they currently know.
July 17, 2022 My 750th ColumnColumns like mine are designed to help people think about issues they might otherwise not read about.
July 10, 2022 The Tensions of Economic Policy in a Volatile TimeDiffering political views can lead to very different policy choices.
July 3, 2022 The 246th Anniversary of ‘The Great Experiment’Our nation may be at its most divided, but I have great hope.
June 12, 2022 Time to Dump the Rich States, Poor States RankingsTax policy is the wrong incentive to spur economic growth.
May 29, 2022 Let Us Ask More of Ourselves on Memorial DayToday’s challenges demand an understanding of evolving facts and trends.
April 24, 2022 Ending Hospital Monopolies Is Needed to Restore Free MarketsThe economic argument against monopoly power is that it interferes with the free functioning of markets.
March 27, 2022 A Tough Two Decades for the Hoosier EconomyMost of Indiana’s job growth this century has been in low-wage work.
March 20, 2022 Quality of Life Spending Is a Conservative PolicyHome prices and wages signal the desirability of communities.
February 27, 2022 The Cost of Russian WarStopping tyrants is less costly done early on.
January 23, 2022 Indiana’s Long-Term Economic Prospects Are PoorState policymakers should be deeply alarmed about a return to a ‘normal’ economy.
January 16, 2022 Americans Are Quietly Realizing Dr. King’s VisionMLK’s words are part of the canon of American political writing, and belong to a long tradition of Enlightenment thought.
November 21, 2021 Tax Debate Should Be About Value of Government Services, Not PriceOver the past two decades, Indiana cut business taxes and saw agonizingly slow economic growth.
October 31, 2021 Who Can Fix Our Supply Chain Issues?Congress could ease logistics problems in any number of ways; the private sector is already at work.
July 25, 2021 Ending the Pandemic UI Was a Rare Mistake by This AdministrationThe pandemic unemployment insurance payments were as close to a ‘free lunch’ for Hoosier taxpayers as anything we’ll ever receive.
July 18, 2021 Free Speech and Senate Bill 414The origin of free speech problems on campus lie primarily outside the classroom.
April 18, 2021 The Post-COVID World Favors High Quality-of-Place CommunitiesBetween 23 million and 35 million households will find themselves newly unencumbered by the need to live within an easy daily commute to work.
April 11, 2021 Economic Development Should Be About Value, Not CostIn the late 1970s–80s, you were taught that low tax rates and capital investment were the key to growth and prosperity, but that theory has not panned out as anticipated.
February 14, 2021 Stop Restricting Indianapolis GrowthIn the 21st century, a full 85 percent of the state’s population growth happened within the Indianapolis metro area.
January 24, 2021 A Recap of Mr. Trump’s PresidencyLet’s review the good, the bad, and the ugly.
January 3, 2021 Political Economy for the HolidaysTo avoid the stain of hypocrisy, ideas must also guide our behavior.
December 13, 2020 How to Stop Worrying About National PoliticsLocal government requires pragmatic competence, not ideological showmanship.
November 22, 2020 Some New and Better Data About Labor MarketsWorker benefits and child care options may affect labor participation.
November 8, 2020 Some Places of Economic CompromiseWe are in the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, and that gives us a chance for Congress to compromise.
April 26, 2020 Covid-19 Response May Be the Most Consequential Decision in State HistoryThe real policy question is whether the benefit of these decisions outweighed the costs.
April 5, 2020 Long-Term Changes from COVID-19We need to place a more personal context on this crisis, and muse upon the potential change this will lead to in our economic lives.
January 26, 2020 Hospital Monopolies Are an Urgent Legislative ProblemHealthcare often costs more than many families’ property and income taxes combined.
December 15, 2019 Slow Growth, but Not a Recession in 2020In thinking about our current economy, it is important to discuss the current policy environment.
October 27, 2019 Indiana’s Human Capital Policies Are Causing Brain Drain and Weakening Our EconomyThe nation may not slip into recession, but Indiana now has.
March 31, 2019 MMT and Modern Supply-Side Economics Are Both NonsenseThese theories are a political panacea.
August 19, 2018 It Is Time to End the War on DrugsWe need another approach.
July 8, 2018 Donnelly’s Automation Adjustment Act Should Be EnactedMost workers were not eligible for assistance because of job losses to automation, not trade.
December 10, 2017 A Forecast for 2018Ineffective policy interventions accompanied the Great Recession.
October 15, 2017 The Lessons of GDP DataPlaces that are doing well have shifted their focus to attracting people, not factories.
March 5, 2017 Taxing CarbonCosts will be concentratd in places and industries that use a lot of energy.
February 26, 2017 Are We on the Cusp of a New Federalist Approach to Government?State-level policy provides options for residents who can vote with their feet.
January 22, 2017 The Wrong Political Message Won’t Help Our EconomyTo create jobs, focus on places, not businesses.
January 1, 2017 The Hoosier Economy Flourished Under Governor Pence Mike Pence made three important moves in his successful governorship.
November 27, 2016 The Origins of American Free TradeThe US created the first free trade zone.
August 23, 2015 More Deportation FolliesBecause of our strict legal immigration policies, poorer folks have little choice but to come here illegally.
August 9, 2015 Who Actually Pays Taxes?All taxes are ultimately paid by households, either directly through various taxes or indirectly through price changes.
April 26, 2015 Less Corruption, Not Cheaper ConstructionSeveral studies examine the effects of the elimination of public construction's prevailing wage.
April 5, 2015 RFRA Impact Is Worse Than EconomicIt is simply not possible to legislate the details of the inevitable tensions between culture and faith.
March 29, 2015 No End to the Meth ScourgeUsing data from two other states, the results of a proposed prescription-only pseudoephedrine policy are clear.
October 5, 2014 More Wisdom in Tax Increment FinancingThe arrival of new sporting goods store raises questions about local government policy.
August 10, 2014 Corporate Tax Inversion Corporations should have a say in the laws that govern them.
July 6, 2014 Court Rulings Uphold FreedomSome issues should stay as matters of individual conscience, not public policy.
May 4, 2014 The Tale of Three StatesThe balance of state and local government results in noticeably different outcomes in Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia.
April 27, 2014 Some Truth of Men’s and Women’s WagesOccupation, education, job tenure and experience explain almost all wage differences; gender, almost none.
April 6, 2014 Simple Economics Lessons for Hard TimesFar too much worry is placed in the short-term ups and downs of the economy.
August 25, 2013 A New Antitrust CaseThe proposed business merger between two large airlines brings century-old anti-trust law to the forefront.
May 19, 2013 The Heritage Foundation, Immigration and Moral CourageGood research should illuminate, not merely support an opinion.
May 19, 2013 The Heritage Foundation, Immigration and Moral CourageGood research should illuminate, not merely support an opinion.
January 21, 2013 Leadership and the Government ShutdownThe transparency of a genuine budget debate will reveal just how unsustainable our spending has become.
November 25, 2012 ‘Scooby Snacks’ and The Great American GiveawayHere, we'll focus on the ‘something for nothing’ crowd.
July 22, 2012 Job Creation and DestructionGovernments don't create jobs, businesses do.
May 7, 2012 A Debate on the Federal ReserveIt is again time to think seriously about the role of the Federal Reserve.
March 26, 2012 Smoking Law Recognizes the Value of LifeAt worst, this legislation will make Hoosiers look like we've entered the 21st century.
January 30, 2012 The State of the UnionThe constitutional obligation of the U.S. president to report “from time to time” to Congress on the state of the union is a rightly awesome event.
January 17, 2012 What to Expect from Right-to-Work Legislation in Indiana...we should expect no effect on manufacturing, for good or ill, in wages or employment as a consequence of RTW.
November 14, 2011 Indiana Elections, 2011In taking an oath of office, one’s perspective changes—which is precisely why we demand these oaths of public officials.
April 4, 2011 April Fool’s Legislative Round-upThe land of Governor Blago and the 75 percent income tax hike could hardly have been more poorly chosen to represent thoughtful progressive governance.
January 24, 2011 The Conundrum of EarmarksFully outlawing earmarks surrenders too much power to the executive branch.
December 6, 2010 The Over-Lawyered SocietyEstimates of the private-sector costs of civil litigation top out at about 2 percent of our gross domestic product, so for every $50 spent in the United States, $1 goes to support legal costs and settlements.
November 22, 2010 Public Policy and Discounting the FutureComplicating the choices is the fact that the costs of addressing global warming will be borne by people now, who are poorer and possess fewer technological options than people living 50 years from now.
October 11, 2010 The Drivers License Odyssey…previously licensed to drive an M1 Tank and various smaller tracked and wheeled vehicles. Obtaining an Indiana license, he thought, would be easy. It was not.
March 23, 2009 Big Bonuses Spur Calls for OversightThis is simply poor moral leadership from the board of directors on down.
January 12, 2009 Speed is Critical to Stimulus PlanFor a stimulus package to have an effect, it has to create jobs immediately.
November 17, 2008 Public Policy Can't Fix PovertyFor most, the only upward path is through work.
September 1, 2008 The Economic Consequences of MarriageA long marriage is easily worth a million dollars.
June 23, 2008 Public Policy and Pie EconomicsFighting over the slice of the pie or making all slices the same size, leaves us all a smaller "economic pie."
March 3, 2008 Indiana Leading Telecom Reform“...in the inelegant, but important world of telecommunications policy, Indiana has emerged as a true leader.”
June 11, 2007 Nothing New About Indiana's Manufacturing Employment Declines"Even as its employment totals shrink, Indiana’s economy remains more focused in manufacturing industries than ever before."
May 29, 2006 Wanted: A Larger Perspective on Public Policy Issues "Compared to almost any other major city, real estate in Indianapolis is an underperforming asset, as it is in many other Indiana communities."
January 2, 2004 Can We Afford Safe Food? "... the cost of actually achieving the absolute goals we so casually throw about is unacceptably high."

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