There is a simple way to cut through the noise about whose economy is stronger — Donald Trump's or Joe Biden's. Pick a moment in time under each president and compare the numbers side by side.

The best comparison is the end of 2023 — just as anger with the economy hit a high point — versus the end of 2025, similar points in each presidency with enough data to assess. I'd certainly rather have the 2023 economy over what we have now.

Start with jobs. In December 2023, the unemployment rate was 3.8%. In December 2025, it was 4.4%. There are now about 1.1 million more unemployed Americans than there were two years ago. In late 2023, there was more than one open job for every unemployed worker. Today there are more unemployed than job openings. Even more worrying, help wanted ad placements have collapsed to May 2020 levels, indicating little economic confidence from firms.

Wage growth in December 2023 was at 4.1% year over year. In December 2025, it was at 3.7%. Adjusting for inflation, these are nearly identical, so workers aren't falling behind on wages. The problem is that fewer of them have jobs, and fewer firms are looking to hire.

Growth tells the same story. In the fourth quarter of 2024, GDP grew at a fabulously healthy 3.4%. Last quarter's growth was a stagnant 1.4%. One way to understand the difference: at 3.4% growth, the economy and standard of living double every 21 years. At 1.4%, it takes 51 years.

Surveys of business and consumer confidence have collapsed alongside the hard data. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is near the lowest levels ever recorded in the survey's history, which dates to 1946.

On inflation, the picture is more mixed. The Federal Reserve's preferred measure, the PCE excluding food and energy, was sitting at 2.1% year-over-year growth in late 2023, well within the Fed's comfort level for lowering interest rates. As of last measure in the fall of 2025, the same measure was at 2.7%, above the Fed's comfort level and rising.

The headline measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index, was actually higher by about 0.5% in late 2023 than it was last November. All that means is that prices are higher now, but rising at about the same pace or slightly slower than in 2023. As a consumer, it is hard to assess these things accurately. After all, does anyone remember a full list of grocery prices month to month?

The bigger tell is how Federal Reserve economists were considering the path of inflation in late 2023 versus today. In late 2023, the Fed was poised to reduce rates as inflation eased. They did so on three occasions in 2024, and then again in mid-2025. Today, despite worsening labor markets, there are no cuts on the horizon. In fact, it seems equally likely that the coming year will see rate hikes rather than rate cuts.

In late 2023 and late 2025, both stock indices and home prices were hitting record levels, with both higher in 2025 than in 2023. For households who own stocks and homes — still the majority of American households, typically through mutual funds or retirement accounts — this part of the economy is clearly favorable today. If you don't own a home or stocks, you may view this fact less favorably.

So why is the economy in a stronger position on assets but weaker on jobs, growth and confidence? The answer lies in what caused each period's conditions.

The high prices and low unemployment of 2023 were a direct result of our rebound from the COVID pandemic. The large stimulus bills — the CARES Act signed by Trump and the American Rescue Plan signed by Biden — fueled inflation risk. The Federal Reserve reacted too slowly, delivering inflation that was modest by historical standards but unfamiliar to most households.

The slowing labor market and far slower economic growth of 2025 had only one major cause: the stark economic uncertainty surrounding Trump's economic policies. Unconstitutional tariffs were the most obvious cause of that uncertainty, but certainly not the only thing. Trump's pledge to end the independence of the Federal Reserve boosted economic uncertainty. His verbal assault on America's allies has led to a significant negative shock to the tourism sector, which saw 11 million fewer European visitors this year.

The brutal and un-American crackdown on illegal immigration has not merely slowed new entrants, but has caused a reversal of migration to the USA. This threatens population and workforce growth across the country.

The One Big Beautiful Bill, which passed last July, was the single most deficit-raising peacetime legislation in U.S. history. It will fuel inflation expectations until it is reversed by Congress or until the Fed raises rates.

The U.S. government shutdown probably contributed modestly to the slower growth in 2025, but it is worth noting that both Biden and Trump faced a GOP-led House and Senate. There were no Biden shutdowns, but as I write this we are on our third in Trump's second term. I'll let the reader judge who might be to blame.

Still, the differences between the two years are not huge. For most of the last two decades, we'd be pretty happy with either year's labor markets, stock markets and inflation.

There is plenty to criticize about Biden and his presidency. But as a wise and thoughtful steward of the economy, he outperformed Trump in spades. Let us all hope that Trump learns some lessons from the economic slowdown his policies are causing and changes course before the economy slows even further.

If his State of the Union address is any indicator, we are in for more of the same.

Note: The views expressed here are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of funders, associations, any entity of Ball State University, or its governing body.