One great irony of our times is that the claims of economic decline that animate both the MAGA movement and the Democratic Socialists of America are indistinguishable from one another.

Both camps argue that, for more than a half-century, wages are stagnating, younger generations are falling behind and malevolent economic forces are robbing families of prosperity and hope. These narratives are poignant, easy to make and wholly false.

As of the beginning of this year, real wages, household income and manufacturing output had all reached historic peaks (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q and https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N and https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USMANRQGSP). American homes doubled in size, highway deaths were cut in half and crime hit post-war lows (see https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/new-us-homes-today-are-1000-square-feet-larger-than-in-1973-and-living-space-per-person-has-nearly-doubled/ and https://www.cjcj.org/reports-publications/blog/new-fbi-data-californias-crime-rate-is-at-record-lows-yet-crime-wave-lies-persist).

American productivity has surpassed Europe's, and China remains decades behind us in prosperity—roughly where America was a century ago.

Even in the one area in which the data suggest America has gone backward—life expectancy—the decline can be attributed to fentanyl and related drug use by a tiny share of the population (see https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266724003037). For everyone else, the post-war period has seen Americans live more than 10% longer—a stunning achievement.

Still, I think there are two reasons why someone who isn’t closely watching economic data or accustomed to fact-checking politicians might find something compelling in the false claims of Sen. Bernie Sanders and President Trump.

The first reason for economic pessimism: It takes longer for young people to acquire the education needed for today's economy. This delays financial independence and family formation, creating anxiety. However, it's part of broader economic changes that have been going on for over 300 years.

Jobs today require more formal education than jobs a half-century ago. The result is that young people spend more time in college and more time paying for it. They start families later but earn more over their lifetimes.

The trade-offs are worth it. Taking a construction job at age 18 pays better than becoming a physician—until about age 30 when the physician's earnings explode. College graduates see their wages grow over a lifetime, while high school graduates peak in their early 30s.

Still, for young people investing in their education, it may seem like life is passing them by. That feeling is as old as formal schooling itself.

The second reason for economic pessimism is the broad divergence of regional economies over the past four decades. Before 1980, poor places tended to grow faster than rich places over time. No place was really left behind for long.

For a half-century now, poor places in America have stagnated while rich places surge ahead. The income gap between America's richest and poorest cities has grown by 50% since 1969. Regional inequality is now worse than it's been in generations.

In 1969, Muncie and Nashville had nearly identical incomes—about 83% of the national average. Today, Muncie has fallen to 66% while Nashville has risen to 110%. The pattern repeats across America.

The difference across places is as stark today as any time in American history. These differences are almost entirely explained by the share of college graduates in the town.

These two trends may make it appear that the U.S. is in worse shape now than it was a half-century ago. That just isn’t true.

The poorest American city in 1969 was McAllen, Texas. It is still the poorest city today, but the inflation-adjusted average income has more than doubled. The average resident of America’s poorest city is twice as well off as they were in 1969. Again, this is a stunning achievement.

It is a pity so many folks have embraced the nonsensical (and largely indistinguishable) economic arguments of Sanders and Trump. All the MAGA and DSA claims of national decline are rooted in false evidence, but that does not mean we’ve been spared their damaging policies.

Trump’s tariff mania, loved by both MAGA and the DSA, has reduced factory production off its peak and pushed us into a manufacturing recession that will drag the remainder of the economy with it.

Want to guess which places will bear the brunt of these bad policies?