Forecasting can be a lonely profession. Our clients seem to only remember our mistakes, and forget about the good calls we have made. At the same time our colleagues in the economics profession hold us off at a distance, lest our unclean habits working with data on a daily basis corrupt their more abstract and esoteric ways of looking at the world. And through it all we must stomach the notion that forecasting is "easy," requiring nothing more than graph paper and a straight edge. 

But one criticism of forecasting that sticks a bit better is that we are too focused on the short run. Making the call about the economy in the next few months is important for bankers, speculators, and many businesses, certainly. But for countless other institutions and communities, the real question is where we will be in the next ten years, not the next ten months. Armed with that knowledge, we can take steps to cope with whatever changes are on the horizon. 

Where will the central Indiana economy be in the year 2011? On its face, that's an almost impossible question to answer. The number of events -- economic, political, environmental, and technological -- that can occur between now and then is so large that any precise forecast will be made laughably inaccurate. But there are long term trends evident in the evolution of our economy. Asking where those trends might take us in a ten year span is more than just dart throwing. It's the basis for prudent planning. 

One trend that is undeniable is the increasing productivity of the American workforce. For almost every kind of physical product you can imagine, we produce more today with less people. That trend has, in turn, spawned two processes with important implications for Indiana. One has been the decline, in relative terms, of the goods-producing side of the economy as an employer. The other has been the rise in demand for new products and services, especially in health care, fueled by technology and the prosperity stemming from greater productivity. 

These trends are starkly evident in the official U.S. long term projections made for some industries that are important for Indiana. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, of the 20.3 million new jobs expected to be created in the U.S. economy in the next ten years, all but 45,000 will be in the services producing side of the economy. Health services, computer and data processing, temp help, and retail trade by themselves account for 45 out of every 100 of total new jobs. 

Central Indiana, including Indianapolis, Muncie, Bloomington, Kokomo and Lafayette, is expected to evolve in this direction faster than the rest of the state. By the year 2011, the fraction of workers with jobs in manufacturing is expected to fall below 13 percent, compared to the 20 percent in manufacturing in the remainder of the state. 

What's taking up the slack? Employment in health services outside hospitals is expected to grow by more than 75 percent over the next 10 years. Computer and data processing services will double. Also growing fast will be lower paying jobs in residential and lawn care, child care, and recreation.