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Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.

It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.

Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.

Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.

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CBER Weekly Commentaries - 2012

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January 3, 2012 A New Year’s ReviewThe New Year is a time of reflection. For someone who comments upon the economy and provides analysis and forecasts, it should be a time to take stock and be honest about where I was right and wrong. I begin with my errors.
January 9, 2012 College Debt and College MajorsA growing percentage of college graduates has pursued degrees that offer no employment prospects to match the cost of college.
January 17, 2012 What to Expect from Right-to-Work Legislation in Indiana...we should expect no effect on manufacturing, for good or ill, in wages or employment as a consequence of RTW.
January 23, 2012 Measuring IntangiblesTo effectively evaluate the wisdom of public policies… we require measurement of many different ‘intangibles.’
January 30, 2012 The State of the UnionThe constitutional obligation of the U.S. president to report “from time to time” to Congress on the state of the union is a rightly awesome event.
February 6, 2012 Super Bowl Research and Economic ImpactsFor a community that prepares well, the Super Bowl elevates the destination status of the city to new heights.
February 13, 2012 Time for Labor Unions to ChangeThe passage of right-to-work law didn’t so much kill unions as simply remove them from life support.
February 20, 2012 Markets and GrowthMarkets rule supreme, but they also work imperfectly and will do so as long as humans themselves remain imperfect.
February 27, 2012 Corporate Tax Cuts and the ElectionPresident Obama unveiled a plan to reduce U.S. corporate tax rates while changing loopholes.
March 5, 2012 Gasoline Prices and the ElectionLast week our president gave what was billed as an important speech about gas prices.
March 12, 2012 Manufacturing Is Alive and WellManufacturing came to the Midwest because we had an abundance of the right workers.
March 19, 2012 It Is the Value Proposition, Not Costs, That Should Drive the Higher Education DebateThe real problem isn’t increasing costs, but uncertain benefits.
March 26, 2012 Smoking Law Recognizes the Value of LifeAt worst, this legislation will make Hoosiers look like we've entered the 21st century.
April 2, 2012 The Joke's on Us with Social SecurityIf treated as a financial investment, Social Security is a really very effective way to destroy wealth.
April 9, 2012 Types of UnemploymentThe difficulty [of estimating the unemployment rate] lies not in the statistical analysis or in the quality of the data, but in the fact that people change.
April 16, 2012 Accounting Mistakes and Local Government ReformThe $206 million in late payments is about half the total tax revenue our states' woefully mismanaged townships kept sitting in the bank over the past several years.
April 23, 2012 Spending, Debt and Long-Run GrowthThe past four or five years have exposed many Americans to a continuing debate over the role of government spending in a recession and resurrected for them the ghosts of many long-dead economists.
April 30, 2012 The Hunger Games and FreedomWhat has kept me in a three-week state of shock is the message on values our kids are getting from this work.
May 7, 2012 A Debate on the Federal ReserveIt is again time to think seriously about the role of the Federal Reserve.
May 14, 2012 A European and American RecessionAs disparate facts, the conditions in Europe and the U.S. are disconcerting.
May 21, 2012 Policy Choices: Austerity or AusterityTaking steps toward austerity is not what has caused Europe's recession.
May 28, 2012 Some Economics of Lasting ChangeThe warrior part of being a soldier is rewarding, even in the direst of settings.
June 4, 2012 A Fix for Financial RegulationChanges to financial regulations have largely been focused on expanding the reach of existing and new financial regulatory agencies.
June 11, 2012 The Failure of Public UnionsWhat this election portends is a serious conversation about public unions and their benefits.
June 18, 2012 Fathers and Personal Discount RateThe more you value the future, the more highly you are apt to be valued by the economy, and vice versa.
June 25, 2012 Taxes for All in 2013One brilliancy of the Bush tax cuts is that they are virtually un-repealable.
July 2, 2012 US Job Market and the EU CrisisOne need not have done well in math to appreciate that the creation of 150,000 new jobs per month is insufficient to budge the unemployment rate.
July 9, 2012 Smart Cuts in GovernmentIt is often argued that government workers are overpaid and over-benefitted, but I think that the composition of the government workforce is a more pressing matter.
July 16, 2012 Tax or Spend, That Is the ArgumentEconomic debates are far more sanguine, with more universal agreement than is apparent to outsiders.
July 22, 2012 Job Creation and DestructionGovernments don't create jobs, businesses do.
July 29, 2012 Policies for the Coming RecessionAn increasing share of forecasters now join me in predicting a recession later this year or early in the next.
August 6, 2012 A Half Century of Economic GrowthThe location of factories no longer determines where people live, rather the quality of communities do.
August 13, 2012 Marriage and Chicken SandwichesQuite simply, government ought to remain neutral on the ways in which families organize themselves.
August 20, 2012 A College Diploma Is Worthless, but the Education Is Priceless It is the college education that matters most, not the diploma.
August 26, 2012 The Arts Matter, When Art Lovers Are FreeThe measurement of value in an artistic endeavor will always lie in the hearts of men and women.
September 2, 2012 Labor Day and the Transformation of UnionsOn this weekend it might be good to focus on what has become of the labor movement that once meant so much to America.
September 9, 2012 Global Slowdown Comes to WyomingA slowing world economy… suggests increased risk of a recession here at home.
September 16, 2012 Corporations and GreedCorporations differ from other business in that their ownership is diffused across people who have purchased shares of the company.
September 23, 2012 Performance Evaluations and the Way We Teach TeachersPerhaps we ought to entirely rethink the role of teachers colleges.
September 30, 2012 Immigration and Hope in the MidwestIt is markets, not urban theorists, who set value.
October 7, 2012 Bernanke Visits IndyBernanke maintained that monetary policy was not a panacea for our economic woes.
October 14, 2012 Not Lying, Just Bad News in Employment NumbersOne out of every 17 workers are part-time workers due to an ailing economy.
October 21, 2012 Are Families an Economic Issue?For those in long-term poverty, there are two causes: physical or mental illness or some form of failing families.
October 28, 2012 More Clarity on Gender and PayIt should not be surprising that the majority of wage differences between men and women can be explained by schooling, occupational choice, and experience.
November 4, 2012 The Problems with Polling and Predicting Conducting voter polls has become more difficult in recent years, despite (or maybe because of) a spate of new technological developments that should have made it easier.
November 11, 2012 The Next Big CrisisBond markets have already identified two states that cannot possibly pay their obligations, and a further four that are in serious trouble.
November 18, 2012 Thelma and Louise Approach the Fiscal CliffThe spending cuts of the fiscal cliff will be far less broadly injurious than most suppose.
November 25, 2012 ‘Scooby Snacks’ and The Great American GiveawayHere, we'll focus on the ‘something for nothing’ crowd.
December 2, 2012 Demagoguery and Truth About TaxesWe should be a bit mindful of demagoguery about taxes.
December 9, 2012 Perhaps It Is Time to Pay Our DebtsAs a great nation, we build and do things that endure and these should be paid for, in part, by successive generations.
December 16, 2012 Forecasts of the EconomyA well thought out economic forecast offers a great deal of useful information.
December 23, 2012 Maximizing Utility Over the HolidaysThe holiday seasons remind us in part how we live a life.
December 30, 2012 Looking Back on the Daniels AdministrationThere were failures, successes and unfinished business.

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