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Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.

It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.

Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.

Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.

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Commentaries tagged with economy

May 25, 2025 Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.
May 18, 2025 It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.
May 11, 2025 Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.
May 4, 2025 Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.
April 13, 2025 The Stupidest of PoliciesThis whipsawing of tariff rates has unnerved financial markets, which on Wednesday, were toying with a liquidity crisis.
March 23, 2025 What the Census Tells Hoosiers About the FutureKeeping things the same really isn’t an option for communities.
March 16, 2025 What to Expect in This RecessionThere is risk of a lot of pain.
February 23, 2025 I Am Confused by Tax ProposalsIndiana, like almost every other government in the world, taxes three things: wealth, consumption and income.
February 2, 2025 The Great State of Illiana (or is it Indinois?)Deep economic divergence has gripped the United States for four decades.
January 19, 2025 My 2025 ForecastThe Hoosier economy is growing, but at the same time falling further behind the rest of the nation.
November 24, 2024 Thanksgiving 2024For Americans, particularly poorer Americans, the current economy has never been stronger.
November 10, 2024 Economic and Policy Expectations for a Trump PresidencyIt is not hard to gauge the policy choices Trump will prefer.
August 25, 2024 Three Property Tax PlansThere are problems with each of these tax proposals from our gubernatorial candidates.
August 18, 2024 What would a conservative tax system look like?There are three big things we can tax: wealth, income and spending.
June 23, 2024 Some Good Reasons for Partisan Perceptions About the EconomyThe gap between rich places and poor places is growing in more ways than one.
June 16, 2024 What Is Driving Misperceptions About the Economy?In a recent survey, more than half of Americans said the economy is shrinking, when in fact it has been growing steadily for four years.
April 28, 2024 We Botched Our Last Curriculum Reform, We Cannot Do So This TimeA very good idea can become very bad public policy when executed poorly.
January 28, 2024 Do Record Levels of Capital Investment Benefit Citizens?Taxpayers may be appropriately skeptical about business relocation announcements.
January 7, 2024 What Does New GDP Data Tell Us About the Hoosier Economy?More than half of all the state’s new residents since 2020 live in one of two counties.
December 17, 2023 Great Economic Holiday GiftsThe end of year data is giving economy watchers plenty cause for holiday cheer.
October 1, 2023 Another Stupid Government ShutdownShutdowns are often a demonstration of clownsmanship, not statesmanship.
June 25, 2023 Growing and Declining Places Have Different ChallengesThe Midwest came of age at a time when natural amenities and recreational opportunities played only a modest role in prosperity or migration.
June 4, 2023 Increasing Importance of Summer JobsThese jobs offer an opportunity to learn as well as earn money.
November 27, 2022 Economic Optimism and Worry on ThanksgivingThe balance of power between freedom and tyranny has never been this favorable.
November 20, 2022 Black Friday Is ChangingConsumers and businesses alike will adjust to these tighter labor markets.
January 2, 2022 2021 Was an Unnecessarily Horrible YearFrom political unrest to vaccination and economic woes, this year was heavy.
December 12, 2021 The 2022 ForecastFrom retail and restaurants to logistics and manufacturing firms, the U.S. economy has been astonishingly resilient.
March 21, 2021 Let’s Be Honest About the COVID Relief BillToo little stimulus is far worse than too much.
March 7, 2021 Our Biggest Economic Challenge Is School Funding Better educational attainment both causes and is caused by a better economy.
September 13, 2020 Confusing Economic Statistics in the Time of COVID-19Americans should be pleased with the economists, statisticians and data scientists examining our complex economic climate.
April 12, 2020 Economic Uncertainty Surround COVID-19Until we develop a vaccine, a robust treatment or broad immunity, a significant level of reduced economic activity must be expected.
April 5, 2020 Long-Term Changes from COVID-19We need to place a more personal context on this crisis, and muse upon the potential change this will lead to in our economic lives.
March 29, 2020 We are Still Underreacting to COVID-19 RisksThis is a recession of choice, in the same way rationing in World War 2 was a choice.
March 22, 2020 Time for Timidity Is OverThe direction of our economy depends on the path of this disease and how we respond.
December 29, 2019 What Does Consumer Spending Do for Our Economy?Consumer spending is simply a measure of demand.
November 17, 2019 Beware Claims of a Golden Age in Our EconomyWe cannot go back, and are naïve to want to do so.
July 28, 2019 The Trade War Is Slowing Our EconomyEconomic performance has slowed domestically and abroad.
June 9, 2019 Recession Looking More LikelyBeyond employment and wages, other data indicate trouble ahead.
December 16, 2018 Slowing Growth and Greater Risk in 2019We look to data indicators to anticipate changes in the new year.
December 11, 2016 The Problems of Slow Economic GrowthSlow economic growth leads to a delayed standard of living increase.
November 20, 2016 What Will a Trump Presidency Bring to Our Economy?It seems probable that big changes can noticeably affect economic growth.
October 9, 2016 Slow Growth Our Biggest ProblemA 2-percent difference in economic growth means a 63-year lag in stardard of living.
April 24, 2016 Labor Markets Outcomes Value EducationThere are lots of jobs available for workers, but only if they have college degrees.
January 24, 2016 The End of a Bubble, Version 2016Actions in Iran and China are affecting markets worldwide.
August 16, 2015 What Drives the Fed Rate Hike Decision?What is the nature of their agreement and disagreements and how does it play into the public debate over economic policy?
August 2, 2015 The Chinese Bubble Is Only the BeginningEconomic growth can come from technology advances, increased productivity, or an increase in human or financial capital.
July 12, 2015 Hazards to Our Recovery: China, Greece and TimeWith 84 months of (often sluggish) expansion, roadblocks lie ahead.
June 7, 2015 Hoosiers Should Fret About GreeceA Greek bankruptcy would lead to tough times for the EU and likely the US.
April 19, 2015 Indiana Desperately Needs the Regional Cities InitiativeEighty of our 92 counties are suffering from a serious decline in population and economic growth.
April 5, 2015 RFRA Impact Is Worse Than EconomicIt is simply not possible to legislate the details of the inevitable tensions between culture and faith.
November 30, 2014 Worries During the Forecasting SeasonAt this rate, our standard of living will double in 80 years.
July 20, 2014 State Taxes and a Slowing EconomyState income taxes are a good place to try to begin understanding state economic performance.
March 17, 2013 Economic Data Hold Little Good NewsDespite the delight in the media, the February data tell a wretched story.
March 10, 2013 The Sequester of the FutureThings will get worse before they get better.
March 3, 2013 Manufacturing and the FutureThe machinery required for production requires different skills now than what was required in 1970.
January 13, 2013 Why Is the Unemployment Rate Still So High?In short, it took nearly all of us to make this happen.
December 9, 2012 Perhaps It Is Time to Pay Our DebtsAs a great nation, we build and do things that endure and these should be paid for, in part, by successive generations.
December 2, 2012 Demagoguery and Truth About TaxesWe should be a bit mindful of demagoguery about taxes.
November 18, 2012 Thelma and Louise Approach the Fiscal CliffThe spending cuts of the fiscal cliff will be far less broadly injurious than most suppose.
November 11, 2012 The Next Big CrisisBond markets have already identified two states that cannot possibly pay their obligations, and a further four that are in serious trouble.
October 28, 2012 More Clarity on Gender and PayIt should not be surprising that the majority of wage differences between men and women can be explained by schooling, occupational choice, and experience.
October 21, 2012 Are Families an Economic Issue?For those in long-term poverty, there are two causes: physical or mental illness or some form of failing families.
October 7, 2012 Bernanke Visits IndyBernanke maintained that monetary policy was not a panacea for our economic woes.
September 9, 2012 Global Slowdown Comes to WyomingA slowing world economy… suggests increased risk of a recession here at home.
August 6, 2012 A Half Century of Economic GrowthThe location of factories no longer determines where people live, rather the quality of communities do.
July 29, 2012 Policies for the Coming RecessionAn increasing share of forecasters now join me in predicting a recession later this year or early in the next.
July 2, 2012 US Job Market and the EU CrisisOne need not have done well in math to appreciate that the creation of 150,000 new jobs per month is insufficient to budge the unemployment rate.
May 14, 2012 A European and American RecessionAs disparate facts, the conditions in Europe and the U.S. are disconcerting.
January 23, 2012 Measuring IntangiblesTo effectively evaluate the wisdom of public policies… we require measurement of many different ‘intangibles.’
January 3, 2012 A New Year’s ReviewThe New Year is a time of reflection. For someone who comments upon the economy and provides analysis and forecasts, it should be a time to take stock and be honest about where I was right and wrong. I begin with my errors.
December 26, 2011 Dear Santa: A Letter from an EconomistLast year you brought me coal, this year could you fill my pickup truck with gasoline instead?
October 17, 2011 Maybe the Occupy Indianapolis Crowd Is on to SomethingIndiana’s public universities pay federal taxes, but GE does not.
October 10, 2011 Competing Economic Theories Agree on DebtPoliticians on both the right and the left suggest that the large stimulus and enormous government spending deficits are in part to blame for the continued ill performance of the U.S. economy.
October 3, 2011 Listening to Long-Dead EconomistsIt is a bit too early to tell what this recession and recovery will do to the reputation of the many economists who prognosticated through it.
September 19, 2011 The Efficacy of the American Jobs ActPresident Obama’s proposed American Jobs Act strikes as fair an attempt at stimulating the economy as is now possible. Whether or not it is good policy or will work is another question.
May 9, 2011 The Empirics of Mothers’ DayMotherhood isn’t limited to the act of giving birth….
February 21, 2011 Unemployment and Economic GrowthThe problem is we now have 7 million people who businesses really don’t need.
February 7, 2011 Confusing Economic DataOver the long run, Wall Street’s stock brokers thirst for low unemployment, high rates of savings, high wages and productivity growth – just like Main Street.
October 25, 2010 Early Childhood Education and the EconomyThe return on investment of early childhood education was clearly positive.
September 13, 2010 The Coming Tax DebateAbout half of all American households pay no income taxes. Starting this January that changes . . .

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