jobs and employment	262
economics	203
state and local government	188
education	186
indiana	173
economic development	171
taxes	146
budget and spending	145
law and public policy	144
workforce and human capital	139

Commentaries tagged with recession

May 25, 2025	Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.
May 18, 2025	It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.
May 11, 2025	Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.
April 13, 2025	The Stupidest of PoliciesThis whipsawing of tariff rates has unnerved financial markets, which on Wednesday, were toying with a liquidity crisis.
March 16, 2025	What to Expect in This RecessionThere is risk of a lot of pain.
August 6, 2023	Looking Back at Mistakes with a Critical EyeI was not alone in making these mistakes, but there’s no comfort in being wrong with a crowd.
January 29, 2023	The 2023 ForecastThe reason for worry about a recession is the Federal Reserve’s response to high inflation.
December 4, 2022	Inflation Will Make the Legislature’s Job Difficult This YearThe budget challenges faced by state legislatures are twofold.
October 9, 2022	A Recession Is Time to Think About the Long TermManufacturing employment is now a smaller part of our economy than it was in previous downturns.
October 2, 2022	Recession Likelihood GrowsIt is too early to predict a recession but not its effects.
April 17, 2022	Where’s Inflation and Growth Headed?We’ve only had one long period of rate increase since the early 1980s, so the consumer response is unknown.
February 13, 2022	MMT Is Just Another Fad Without EvidenceThe controversy is a useful window into how we create knowledge and uncover truth.
June 6, 2021	What Economists Got Right and Wrong about COVIDShifts in labor, occupational structure, and community amenities influence the degree of recovery.
April 4, 2021	Inflation Is Not Our Top ProblemRecession effects are influenced by the tradeoff between unemployment and inflation.
March 21, 2021	Let’s Be Honest About the COVID Relief BillToo little stimulus is far worse than too much.
January 31, 2021	How This Recession Is UnfoldingIt appears now that we’ll end 2020 with a downturn that ranks in the top five to seven worst years since the 1920s.
September 13, 2020	Confusing Economic Statistics in the Time of COVID-19Americans should be pleased with the economists, statisticians and data scientists examining our complex economic climate.
September 6, 2020	COVID-19 and InequalityThe pandemic continues to exert a historic effect on our economy, and we must confront it with honesty, facts and determination.
August 16, 2020	State and Local Tax Support Is an Urgent NeedWhile many businesses are able to adapt, the underlying loss of permanent jobs is alarming.
August 2, 2020	Our Poor Response to COVID-19 Pushes Us to the Edge of a DepressionShutdowns disguise two indicators of a weak economy.
June 14, 2020	Nearly One in Five US Workers Lost Their Job Since MarchThe labor market shrank by more than 6 million workers in three months.
May 31, 2020	The Pandemic’s Damage Is Long TermWe must honestly acknowledge the potential depth and duration of the downturn.
May 17, 2020	It’s the Disease, Not the GovernmentConsumer spending changed before any government restrictions were implemented.
April 5, 2020	Long-Term Changes from COVID-19We need to place a more personal context on this crisis, and muse upon the potential change this will lead to in our economic lives.
March 29, 2020	We are Still Underreacting to COVID-19 RisksThis is a recession of choice, in the same way rationing in World War 2 was a choice.
March 22, 2020	Time for Timidity Is OverThe direction of our economy depends on the path of this disease and how we respond.
March 8, 2020	A Decelerating Economy on the Brink of RecessionThe arrival of Covid-19 is already exacting a toll on the weakened manufacturing sector.
December 15, 2019	Slow Growth, but Not a Recession in 2020In thinking about our current economy, it is important to discuss the current policy environment.
September 15, 2019	Causes of a Possible RecessionEconomic shocks cause recessions.
July 28, 2019	The Trade War Is Slowing Our EconomyEconomic performance has slowed domestically and abroad.
June 9, 2019	Recession Looking More LikelyBeyond employment and wages, other data indicate trouble ahead.
January 20, 2019	Indiana’s Labor Markets Aren’t Ready for a RecessionThe long-term effect of a recession is mostly determined by the labor market response of businesses.
October 28, 2018	Thinking About the Next RecessionThe good is news is that labor markets seem strong, jobs are plentiful and wages may be rising.
July 15, 2018	The Limits of MacroeconomicsForecasting recessions is far murkier than forecasting the weather.
October 16, 2016	The Effect of a Trade WarA decrease in trade leads to economic events like recession and depression.
June 12, 2016	A Bad Jobs Report and the Limits of Economic PolicyPredicting a downturn is not the same thing as preventing one.
October 12, 2014	Worrying About a Stock BubbleConditions hint that we could be in for another financial crisis.
June 30, 2013	The Fed and Economic TheoryPolitical folklore has it that economists are infamously divided between explanations for the cause of the boom-and-bust cycle.
June 30, 2013	The Fed and Economic TheoryPolitical folklore has it that economists are infamously divided between explanations for the cause of the boom-and-bust cycle.
May 12, 2013	Labor Markets Continue to SufferThe employment data we read about treat all jobs the same, whether they are 15 hours or 45 per week.
February 10, 2013	The Whys of Stock PricesThe shedding of 8 million unneeded workers boosted profits for lots of businesses.
February 3, 2013	The Recession Is HereThere has been no quarterly decline in GDP on record without a recession.
January 13, 2013	Why Is the Unemployment Rate Still So High?In short, it took nearly all of us to make this happen.
January 7, 2013	More Budget FailuresIn the final hours, it was clear the poison pill of the fiscal cliff required too much courage for our ‘leaders’ in Washington.
December 23, 2012	Maximizing Utility Over the HolidaysThe holiday seasons remind us in part how we live a life.
December 16, 2012	Forecasts of the EconomyA well thought out economic forecast offers a great deal of useful information.
October 7, 2012	Bernanke Visits IndyBernanke maintained that monetary policy was not a panacea for our economic woes.
July 29, 2012	Policies for the Coming RecessionAn increasing share of forecasters now join me in predicting a recession later this year or early in the next.
July 16, 2012	Tax or Spend, That Is the ArgumentEconomic debates are far more sanguine, with more universal agreement than is apparent to outsiders.
May 21, 2012	Policy Choices: Austerity or AusterityTaking steps toward austerity is not what has caused Europe's recession.
May 14, 2012	A European and American RecessionAs disparate facts, the conditions in Europe and the U.S. are disconcerting.
April 23, 2012	Spending, Debt and Long-Run GrowthThe past four or five years have exposed many Americans to a continuing debate over the role of government spending in a recession and resurrected for them the ghosts of many long-dead economists.
November 7, 2011	The Skinny on Community GrowthThe quality of the workforce matters more than anything else in the long haul of economic development.
June 6, 2011	Education and New JobsThe hard truth is that all the jobs lost in the economy that will return already have.
May 16, 2011	Gas Prices AgainIt is fundamental economics that drives gas price changes, and that is far more worrisome than speculation.
April 25, 2011	Profits and the Profit MotiveProfits and the motive for getting them are the most critical part of an economy.
December 20, 2010	The What and When of InflationInflation is solely caused by too much money chasing too few goods.
September 27, 2010	The End of a RecessionThe slow and uneven job growth combined with shockingly fast productivity growth eerily signals that much of our economy has gone through a structural change.
August 16, 2010	Expectations and the Sluggish Recovery ..weighty confusion of federal policy has cost us an astounding 3.3 million jobs
July 19, 2010	To Spend or Cut Taxes, That Is the QuestionIt is uncertainty about federal policy that accompanies it which cripples growth.
July 5, 2010	4th of July OptimismIn truly free societies, it is the dogged optimism of small scale economic actors that propels growth.
June 28, 2010	Roots of Recession in Homes and Stocks The length of the recession makes more sense when you think about its causes.
March 15, 2010	Recession Slows with Costly Job CreationWithout an explosion of Stimulus related employment, the economic models supporting it are in trouble.
December 21, 2009	Recession Helps Close the Skills GapIn reality many, many more have lost jobs, sometimes several jobs over the course of the recession.
October 12, 2009	Labor Market Declines PersistIt is unsurprising that many of these new jobs are lower paying than previous jobs.
September 14, 2009	Post-Recession Policies Matter More than TheoryThe types of fiscal stimulus Congress passed earlier this year fell from favor not because of economic theory, but rather because they rarely work well.
June 22, 2009	Recession - When Will it End?Recessions end, with or without government intervention.
January 12, 2009	Speed is Critical to Stimulus PlanFor a stimulus package to have an effect, it has to create jobs immediately.
December 8, 2008	Recession Pains OncomingThe recession so far has been as pain free as they come, and that is about to end.
October 13, 2008	Financial Market Mayhem Feeding RecessionRecessions, even big ones, actually have a more modest effect than most believe.
April 28, 2008	Recession - Is it or isn't it?“In the end it isn't the boom and bust cycle that holds much sway over our lives.”
September 4, 2006	A Bounce Back in Our Spending Appetites "...the list of projects and needs in search of new state dollars is a daunting one."
January 14, 2005	Understanding Public Sector Growth "... the unusual strength in government hiring just as the recession was coming on, continuing into 2002, is sharply different from the previous recession of 1991."
April 9, 2004	Understanding the Budget Plight of States "There is an imbalance between revenue growth and expenditure growth that is not related to the state of the economy, and that faster economic growth will not cure. And what will cure it is not popular."
February 20, 2004	New Data Put State Economy in Better Light " ... the job data say that the recession-related job declines essentially stopped in the spring of 2002, or more than twelve months earlier than previously published."
October 17, 2003	Midwest Marches to a Different Drummer "From Wisconsin to Kentucky, west to Illinois and east to Ohio forms a block of states whose employment losses have been among the largest in the nation."
August 15, 2003	Time to Put Aside Old Economic Worries? "...the data are telling us quite clearly right now that the U.S. economy has moved on from the recession."
July 25, 2003	Recession in the Rear-View Mirror "The data clearly indicate that businesses across all sectors of the economy have been learning how to get more out of the equipment they already have."
May 9, 2003	Is Indiana's Economy Still Getting Worse? "The preliminary April employment totals, as adjusted for seasonal variation by the Bureau of Business Research, were down by 39,000 jobs statewide from their high point at the beginning of this year."
May 2, 2003	Will This Recession Make Us Any Wiser? "It is sobering to know, but valuable to remember, that our bold pronouncements of "new rules" for the economy stand like crepe paper when the ill winds of declining investor and consumer confidence start to blow. "
April 25, 2003	The U.S. Economy Dodges a Bullet "The numbers show that the war displaced, but did not ultimately disrupt consumer spending."
March 14, 2003	Rethinking the Recession "The capacity of the still-fragile U.S. economic recovery to absorb losses like we saw last month is limited."
February 28, 2003	The Message of the 2001 Recession "When you look at manufacturing employment, the recession of 2001 has been nearly twice as severe as the recession of 1991 and is only eclipsed by the devastating downturn we experienced in 1982 in terms of job loss."
December 27, 2002	Crunch Time for Manufacturing Economy "After an impressive rebound from its recession low point of December 2001, factory output nationwide has slipped and stumbled since mid-summer."
December 6, 2002	There's Little Comfort in Consensus"...if the job market doesn’t show some improvement soon, the growth in income -- which provides the fuel for consumer spending -- will be seriously threatened."
November 22, 2002	Looking at the Full Half of the Glass "The Midwestern values of honesty and humility that permeate our state don't lend themselves very well to boasting and self-promotion."
November 1, 2002	Watch What Consumers Do, Not What They Say "The Bureau of Economic Analysis's report on the third quarter economy paints a picture of heavy consumer spending."
September 20, 2002	Manufacturing Economy Takes a Breather "Even with the August weakness, the performance of manufacturing thus far in 2002 has to be considered heartening."
August 19, 2002	No Sign Yet of Recession's End in Indiana "... we must squarely face the fact that the recession of 2001 has been disproportionately harsh to the economy of the state of Indiana."
July 26, 2002	The Perfect Storm for Indiana Income? "Over the last year, income received by individuals has averaged a mere 1.2 percent gain, less than what it would take to keep up with inflation over the same period."
May 31, 2002	The Corporate Recession "The fact that all businesses, not just corporations, have had a hard time making a buck lately has reverberated throughout the entire economy."
May 17, 2002	Assessing Indiana’s Economic Status "While the national economic news paints a rosy picture for the U.S. as a whole, the widening shortfall between forecasted and realized tax collections being counted in the state house tells us that the recession is still full blown in the state of Indiana."
April 26, 2002	U.S. Economy Jumps Off the Sick Bed "The news that the national economy expanded at a robust 5.8 percent rate puts the final nail in the coffin of the short-lived 2001 recession."
March 8, 2002	Recession is Over, What's Next? "The data are increasingly telling us that the overall contraction in the economy has stopped."
February 8, 2002	Recipe for Low Price Inflation "What do you get when you mix a strong dollar, a recession, and an unexpected surplus of crude oil production? In the national economy, the result is all around us: very low rates of price inflation."
January 18, 2002	Signs of a Turnaround? "There have been some hopeful signs coming out of the manufacturing sector of late, but they still fall short of constituting the much-hoped-for rebound."
January 11, 2002	Indiana Economic Report Card for 2001 "A collapse in business spending and in exports, coupled with weak consumer spending, has helped produce the first recession in the U.S. economy since 1991."
December 14, 2001	Indiana's Recession Experiences Are a Mixed Bag "Now that the hype of a recession-proof, "new" economy has been put to rest by the downturn that began last fall, its time to take a cold, hard look at exactly how this recession might unfold for businesses and workers in Indiana."
November 30, 2001	Where's the Smoking Gun in the U.S. Economic Decline? "Now that the economy is heading south, all eyes are on those who purport to know when things will turn around."
November 9, 2001	Indiana's Fiscal Crisis Was Predictable "State governments across the United States are in trouble. Some have seen as much as a 17 percent drop in tax revenues as a result of the economic downturn that has snowballed into what appears now to be a full blown recession."
November 2, 2001	A Chorus of Bad News for the Economy "As small streams and creeks join forces to create a river, the cutbacks and slowdowns across every sector of the economy combined in October to produce the worst U.S. labor market performance in more than two decades."
October 26, 2001	Economic Pothole Dead Ahead "As the national economy slips into what hopefully will prove to be a brief recession, it’s clear we’re still not up to the challenge of avoiding economic downturns altogether."
October 12, 2001	What Caused the 2001 Recession? "Low levels of business spending, poor earnings reports and the stagnation of the stock market suggested a continued slide into recession."
August 31, 2001	Painful Adjustments Ahead for U.S. Economy "There are now only two scenarios for the future: a resumption of growth, or a recession."
July 6, 2001	Challenge for Economy in Second Quarter "If you put the pieces of the U.S. economic data together, they would seem to spell a recession in the second quarter of the year."
January 5, 2001	What's Behind the Fed's Bold Move "The message is clear: the U.S. economy is in greater danger of sinking into recession than policymakers have been letting on."

Center for Business and Economic Research - Ball State University

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Commentaries tagged with recession