November 2, 2001
A Chorus of Bad News for the Economy
As small streams and creeks join forces to create a river, the cutbacks and slowdowns across every sector of the economy combined in October to produce the worst U.S. labor market performance in more than two decades. Detecting much of anything good in the news of 415,000 lost jobs or a half percentage point jump in theunemployment rate will take a very rosy lens indeed. But disentangling which components of the steep decline are due to jitters over terrorism, and which stem from longer-lived impediments to spending, remains a vital task for policymakers.
The broad theme sounded by the October U.S. job report was blunt and simple. Sectors which were already hurting felt more pain. And those that were growing saw their growth streaks snapped. Out of 52 aggregate industry categories tracked by the Bureau of Business Research, only 8 had higher employment levels than in the previous month. The national job total of 131,767,000 now falls 378,000 jobs short of the number that were on U.S. payrolls twelve months ago.
The reductions in manufacturing payrolls, which have been accelerating steadily since last fall, continued unabated in October. The 142,000 job decline for the month was slanted towards durable goods, led by a 2.3 percent contraction in motor vehicles industry employment. But in fact, no sector was spared.
On the services producing side of the economy the news was equally grim. Thanks to a large contraction in the business services industries, led by steep cuts in temporary help services, the entire services industry recorded its largest one month decline in employment in its history, 110,000 jobs. And retail trade employment was battered by declines in the restaurant industry and in a host of other merchandising categories.
The October job report confirms that the U.S. economic slowdown is no longer following the inventory correction script that some had hoped for before September 11. The expected stimulus to the economy from a pickup in production schedules to replenish depleted inventories has been swamped by a cratering of consumer spending. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumption expenditures fell by 1.3 percent for the month of September alone.
The U.S. economy thus enters the year's final quarter with the air coming out of its sails. Clearly the events of September played a critical role in accelerating a decline that was already well underway. That point is evidenced by the third quarter report on Gross Domestic Product released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Although the GDP data do show that the overall economy contracted at a 0.4 percent rate -- the first contraction since the 1991 recession -- its decline was moderated by a tepid, yet positive, increase in consumer spending. Continued double digit declines in business spending and in exports were too much for the 1.4 percent increase inconsumer spending to overcome.
Is the economy in as bad of shape as the October job report suggests? Probably not. The reluctance of consumers to spend and especially to travel that battered the services sectors last month must be considered temporary. But there's no denying the fact that the pain of this downturn is reaching into kitchens and living rooms just about everywhere.
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