The Wall Street Journal recently summed up the prospects for the U.S. economy in the coming months with one simple question: is Alan Greenspan a genius, or is he over the hill? With the once-charging national economy now stopped dead in its tracks, according to the most recent statistics, the cushion for further slowing is gone, and there are now only two scenarios for the future: a resumption of growth, or a recession.

It’s not really all about one man, of course. But the image of the Federal Reserve Chairman's furrowed brow is the face that all of us associate with economic policy. And with the economic expansion skating on such thin ice, that's something we're all paying a lot more attention to these days.

The question that will be answered in the coming months, however, is much larger than simply the management acumen of the policymakers at the Fed. Our fate in the balance of this year will really hinge on whether or not the bricks and mortar side of the economy has enough muscle left to keep the sinking high tech economy from bringing down the entire ship.

That's because there is mounting evidence that the most painful adjustments are over for the sectors of the national economy that have historically been most sensitive to fluctuations in aggregate spending, namely housing and consumer durables. Thanks in part to aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve at the start of the year, the twelve month period ending in July saw motor vehicle sales top 16.7 million units, only 3 percent down from the previous year's record pace. And the housing industry is back in gear already, with new home starts back to their levels of 1999.

But the woes for the high flyers in the new economy may only be getting started. Its hard to overstate the magnitude of the turnabout in fortunes of the technology sector. Consider, for example, the fate of the electronics equipment industry. At the close of last year, the output of this industry was six times higher than it was in 1992. Between the summer of 1998 and the end of 2000 alone, the entire industry doubled in size.

It’s been another story since the beginning of this year, however. Slow Christmas sales for personal computers were only the beginning of a souring of business and consumer demand for a wide array of high tech items that have hit the industry hard. After growing at a scorching 22 percent annual rate for the last eight years, the electronic equipment industry is now moving just as fast in the opposite direction.

The unsettling thing about this turnabout, aside from its drag on the overall economy, is the uncertainty of how long it will last. Most of us have lived through a cycle or two of housing, manufacturing, or even the stock market, but computers, communications and software are another story. Few of us are surprised to see these newer industries prove vulnerable to cycles, but no one has the data to accurately gauge the likely depth or duration of their downturn.

That's why, like it or not, we'll all be living under the microscope in the coming six months. The Federal Reserve has done a reasonable job of recognizing the weakness in the economy and doing what it can to try to stimulate demand. But even as the pivotal housing and motor vehicle industries respond on cue, the continued swoon in high tech activity raises the question: is it enough?