It’s been a full year since President Donald Trump made his first big cuts to his tariffs. In many ways, the president is flailing to undo economic damage caused by his policies. The incessant TACOing is the trademark of his presidency.

Trump announced a large suite of illegal tariffs in April 2025. They amounted to more than a tenfold tax increase on imported goods. Many economists provided sobering estimates of the effect of these tariffs on our domestic economy.

Financial markets ruptured. The bond market, which is where the U.S. government finances its deficit and services more than $30 trillion in outstanding debt, viewed Trump’s tariffs as an economic catastrophe.

But, Trump always chickens out, and the TACO was born. He delayed the tariffs by 90 days on April 9, consoling both the bond and stock markets. Over the next several months, Trump made hundreds of changes to tariffs, sometimes changing rates on the same country two or more times in one day (see https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-april-2-2026).

This frenetic and unpredictable behavior suited the president in two ways. First, it gave the impression to many supporters that he was negotiating tariffs with other countries. That wasn’t really happening, but it fit his self-made TV image as a savvy negotiator.

Second, it allowed his supporters to claim that economists were wrong about their forecasts. Of course, economists were right about the tariff effects — that’s why he TACO’d.

As predicted, U.S. job growth effectively stopped, the unemployment rate rose, manufacturing shed more than 70,000 jobs, real wage growth turned negative and prices began a deep and lasting increase.

The consumer price index last April was 2.3%, a level that seemed certain to lead to Fed rate cuts and lower mortgage rates. Twelve months later, it spiked to 3.3% — before the effects of the Iran war began to bite. It’s going to get worse.

The Federal Reserve is more likely to raise rates this year than lower them because of the tariffs. Indeed, the only thing likely to result in an interest rate cut this year is a recession, but it would take a deep one to do so. Slow growth with higher prices is much more likely and the stagflation prediction looks prescient (see https://commentaries.cberdata.org/1324/it-s-stagflation-not-inflation).

Tariffs aren’t the only cause of TACOing. Trump’s habit of chickening out stems from a clear chain of behaviors. The process is remarkably consistent.

First, install unqualified officials into important positions (think Peter Navarro, Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi and Pete Hegseth) and ensure they purge their offices of expertise. Second, find a problem that requires deep expertise: tariffs, fighting Iran, deporting criminal aliens or enforcing laws. Third, implement unworkable, and often illegal, policies. Fourth, face the consequences and TACO.

The so-called Department of Government Efficiency, the brainchild of Elon Musk and some 20-something tech guys, cost the government more money than it saved. Trump had to discard Musk and his goons.

Agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and U.S. Customs and Border Protection swarmed Minneapolis — a place with a low-immigrant population — to make a political point against progressive cities. That surge of untrained agents led to the shooting of two peaceful protestors. Trump turned to his hallmark TACO, firing Noem, who oversaw the Minneapolis operation as homeland security secretary.

Release the Epstein files? Trump ordered Bondi to do so, then fired her for failing to dampen the outrage over not releasing them.

Trump attacked Iran without any contingency for the most likely set of responses — ballistic missile and drone attacks on allies and U.S. troops, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The results have been ground casualties ten times the Desert Storm rate, attacks on every major Gulf ally and volatile oil prices.

Trump has tried to TACO his way out of Iran with ridiculous threats and a cease-fire. But, unlike tariffs or deportations or releasing the Epstein files, the decision to end this war is not his alone. In war, the bad guys always get a vote — and yes, Iran is most definitely one of the bad guys.

The entirety of the Trump presidency will now be consumed by his TACOing, or dealing with mistakes of which he is the sole author.

Only a few Americans would’ve paid attention to the Epstein files if it weren’t for Trump using them for bogus electoral advantage. Almost no one wanted heavy tariffs on consumer goods, particularly knowing that American families would bear 90% or more of the costs. We all want a more efficient government, but not the firing of experts. Outside of Christian nationalists and other hate groups, no one wants mass deportations, at least not including the 95% of illegal immigrants who’ve committed no crimes. Every sober and thoughtful American would welcome the end of the Iranian regime.

The problem is, in all of these cases, there is no real plan, ideology, focus or intellectual construct — just whim.

For those whims, Trump will spend the remainder of his presidency facing the consequences of epically bad decisions. We are in a period of rising prices, slow growth, an imminent recession, a grim war and broad legal jeopardy for many in the Trump circles.

These challenges seem likely to consume White House policy efforts for the next two years.

Note: The views expressed here are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of funders, associations, any entity of Ball State University, or its governing body.