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Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.

Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.

Time to Fix Economic Development PolicyAllocating tax dollars to land development won’t cause economic growth.

The Unanticipated Effects of SB1Businesses, governments and households may all feel the effects.

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May 11, 2025 Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.
May 4, 2025 Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.
April 27, 2025 Time to Fix Economic Development PolicyAllocating tax dollars to land development won’t cause economic growth.
April 20, 2025 The Unanticipated Effects of SB1Businesses, governments and households may all feel the effects.
April 13, 2025 The Stupidest of PoliciesThis whipsawing of tariff rates has unnerved financial markets, which on Wednesday, were toying with a liquidity crisis.
March 30, 2025 The Birth and Death of Rustbelt CitiesEducational attainment is the fundamental factor leading to city growth or decline.
March 23, 2025 What the Census Tells Hoosiers About the FutureKeeping things the same really isn’t an option for communities.
March 16, 2025 What to Expect in This RecessionThere is risk of a lot of pain.
March 9, 2025 A 1960s Rural Development PlanFarming and manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back, even as we hit new production records.
March 2, 2025 What Is Government Inefficiency?Different levels of government concern themselves with different problems.
February 23, 2025 I Am Confused by Tax ProposalsIndiana, like almost every other government in the world, taxes three things: wealth, consumption and income.
February 9, 2025 The Medicaid DilemmaFor every one new job created in Indiana since 2010, we’ve had more than two new people enroll in Medicaid.
February 2, 2025 The Great State of Illiana (or is it Indinois?)Deep economic divergence has gripped the United States for four decades.
January 26, 2025 A Whirlwind Policy Start to the YearGov. Braun and General Assembly have proposed a number of changes.
January 5, 2025 School Choice Is a Good, Not Great Thing… Sort ofThe benefits are overestimated and misunderstood.
December 15, 2024 Indiana’s Commission on Higher Education Issues an Eye-Opening ReportOur current level of educational attainment and college attendance rates puts us squarely in the bottom 10 states and territories.
December 8, 2024 Sorting and Policy DivergenceWithout room for state-level differences in what it meant to be a Republican or Democrat, states began to align with national politics.
November 17, 2024 The Degrowth Movement Is Wrong and ImmoralDegrowthers are terribly mistaken in three big ways.
October 27, 2024 Indiana Is Ground Zero for Anti-American IdeologiesBad ideas rarely die of their own accord.
September 15, 2024 IEDC’s Unhappy 20th AnniversaryIndiana must become a place where education and skills of people form the central mission of state and local economic development policies.
September 8, 2024 You Maybe Don’t Want to Ask How We Can Balance our Federal BudgetIt seems like we could easily cut spending—until you understand what we are spending money on.
August 25, 2024 Three Property Tax PlansThere are problems with each of these tax proposals from our gubernatorial candidates.
August 18, 2024 What would a conservative tax system look like?There are three big things we can tax: wealth, income and spending.
August 11, 2024 Project 2025 Is a Roadmap to DisasterThe document is alarming enough that former President Trump denied knowledge of its existence.
July 7, 2024 Freedom Is DifficultSimply living in the United States is as easy as it gets, and almost always has been.
June 30, 2024 Silly Tax Cut ProposalsIn Indiana, a 1 percent increase in the average tax rate leads to a 2 percent increase in population growth.
June 23, 2024 Some Good Reasons for Partisan Perceptions About the EconomyThe gap between rich places and poor places is growing in more ways than one.
June 16, 2024 What Is Driving Misperceptions About the Economy?In a recent survey, more than half of Americans said the economy is shrinking, when in fact it has been growing steadily for four years.
June 2, 2024 Regional Cities Initiative, an Economic BoonBehind the concept was a clear understanding that most economic growth was happening in cities with solid quality-of-life investments.
May 26, 2024 Why They DiedFor more than 235 years, our soldiers have died bearing true faith and allegiance to the Constitution.
May 19, 2024 The End of Noncompete ClausesBusinesses that have shielded themselves from competition through noncompete clauses will need to do better.
May 12, 2024 The Good, the Bad and the Antisemitic Ugliness on CampusFor every one protesting student, hundreds of others were studying for final exams, completing term papers or preparing end-of-course presentations.
April 28, 2024 We Botched Our Last Curriculum Reform, We Cannot Do So This TimeA very good idea can become very bad public policy when executed poorly.
April 14, 2024 The Midwest Is Struggling in the Post-COVID WorldWe are chasing past economic glories rather than pursuing economic opportunities of the future.
February 25, 2024 SB202 Offers the Wrong Solutions to a Real ProblemMy reference to ideological imbalance refers to the creation of an artificial close-mindedness that stifles debate, isolates important perspectives and diminishes the richness of a college education.
February 4, 2024 Libertarians Going CrazyLibertarian viewpoints offer us a useful reminder of what restraints we must put upon those who govern us.
January 28, 2024 Do Record Levels of Capital Investment Benefit Citizens?Taxpayers may be appropriately skeptical about business relocation announcements.
January 21, 2024 Small School Corporations Face Some Tough ChoicesStudent opportunities and outcomes increase and operational costs decrease when corporations approach optimal enrollment levels.
January 7, 2024 What Does New GDP Data Tell Us About the Hoosier Economy?More than half of all the state’s new residents since 2020 live in one of two counties.
November 12, 2023 Defend Democracies on This Veteran’s DayOur Constitution offers the highest form of a liberal democracy.
November 5, 2023 Municipal Elections Are Critical to Your ProsperityIn Indiana’s cities, like most cities nationwide, the problems mayors face aren’t partisan issues.
October 22, 2023 Economic Perceptions Driven by Educational and Geographic Differences in ProsperityThe geography of economic opportunity is shrinking.
October 15, 2023 An Exogenous Economic Shock from HamasArmed conflict is always economically damaging but may spur long-term growth.
October 1, 2023 Another Stupid Government ShutdownShutdowns are often a demonstration of clownsmanship, not statesmanship.
September 10, 2023 China Is a Poor and Failing NationChina is getting in the way of its own economic growth.
August 6, 2023 Looking Back at Mistakes with a Critical EyeI was not alone in making these mistakes, but there’s no comfort in being wrong with a crowd.
July 16, 2023 Job Creation Numbers Are DeceptiveOnly a small percentage of new jobs are due to state and local economic development efforts.
July 2, 2023 July 4th and American-Style ConservatismA true American conservative cannot believe that government should promote that faith, or treat those of other faiths differently.
June 25, 2023 Growing and Declining Places Have Different ChallengesThe Midwest came of age at a time when natural amenities and recreational opportunities played only a modest role in prosperity or migration.
June 18, 2023 New Labor Market Data Is Eye Opening But Under UsedThere’s been more data created on labor and education in the past 25 years than in the preceding 25 centuries.
April 2, 2023 The Five Skills Employers Tell Me They NeedI’ve asked countless numbers of leaders in business, government, military, and organizations.
March 26, 2023 Bank Failures Warn of Deeper Economic ProblemsDuring the Great Recession, a whopping 0.014 percent of banks were closed by the FDIC.
March 19, 2023 Remote Work Through the Eyes of Three 20-SomethingsRemote work is here to stay.
February 19, 2023 Balancing the Federal BudgetThere’s no silver bullet that will return our debt to comfortable levels.
February 12, 2023 What Is Happening to Labor Supply?Wishing to employ someone is not the same as labor demand.
January 22, 2023 Some Labor Market Facts You Won’t Read ElsewhereIndiana is simply not producing a 21st century workforce.
January 15, 2023 Three Types of Public DebtAll types of public debt are effectively transfers of wealth from the future to our present selves.
December 11, 2022 READI Grant Is Great for Most of IndianaBusinesses and households value public services more highly than public infrastructure spending.
December 4, 2022 Inflation Will Make the Legislature’s Job Difficult This YearThe budget challenges faced by state legislatures are twofold.
November 13, 2022 The Timing of Economic PolicyCentral planning of economic activity likely will result in wasteful, ineffective policies.
October 23, 2022 The Badness of National Conservatism IdeologyA political movement that rejects the fundamentals of our Constitution is, by definition, anti-American.
October 9, 2022 A Recession Is Time to Think About the Long TermManufacturing employment is now a smaller part of our economy than it was in previous downturns.
September 25, 2022 Two economic lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian WarOne lesson is about public spending on services, the other about free trade.
September 18, 2022 Why Do We Care About a Monarchy?Strong, stable, adaptable institutions help us navigate change while ensuring continuity.
September 4, 2022 Lingering Effects of COVID on WorkThe U.S. is still about 1.0 percent below its pre-COVID participation rate.
July 31, 2022 Trying to Measure the Effect of Abortion Bans on Our EconomyThe effect we see right now is vastly different from what we’ll see in a few years.
July 17, 2022 My 750th ColumnColumns like mine are designed to help people think about issues they might otherwise not read about.
June 26, 2022 Inflation Affects Each Family DifferentlyWe understand earthquakes and hurricanes better than we do inflation.
June 12, 2022 Time to Dump the Rich States, Poor States RankingsTax policy is the wrong incentive to spur economic growth.
May 29, 2022 Let Us Ask More of Ourselves on Memorial DayToday’s challenges demand an understanding of evolving facts and trends.
February 27, 2022 The Cost of Russian WarStopping tyrants is less costly done early on.
December 12, 2021 The 2022 ForecastFrom retail and restaurants to logistics and manufacturing firms, the U.S. economy has been astonishingly resilient.
December 5, 2021 Some More Talk About Inflation RisksA price increase does not equate inflation.
November 21, 2021 Tax Debate Should Be About Value of Government Services, Not PriceOver the past two decades, Indiana cut business taxes and saw agonizingly slow economic growth.
November 14, 2021 It Is Time to Be Honest About Debt, Spending and TaxationSpending that makes us more productive often pays for itself through increased GDP that is then taxed.
August 22, 2021 How to Think About the Infrastructure BillInfrastructure spending reallocates jobs far more often than it creates them.
July 18, 2021 Free Speech and Senate Bill 414The origin of free speech problems on campus lie primarily outside the classroom.
July 4, 2021 The Ideals of Independence DayLiberty flows from the simple act of being human, not from government, religion, ancestry or race.
June 13, 2021 Some Early Census Results for IndianaPeople are the driving force of economic growth.
June 6, 2021 What Economists Got Right and Wrong about COVIDShifts in labor, occupational structure, and community amenities influence the degree of recovery.
February 14, 2021 Stop Restricting Indianapolis GrowthIn the 21st century, a full 85 percent of the state’s population growth happened within the Indianapolis metro area.
September 20, 2020 The Real Problem with Our National DebtIt’s important to explain how the debt does and does not matter.
September 13, 2020 Confusing Economic Statistics in the Time of COVID-19Americans should be pleased with the economists, statisticians and data scientists examining our complex economic climate.
August 30, 2020 Gresham’s Law and Subsidized ApartmentsTax dollars that should’ve gone to schools, public safety and other purposes will now supporting new ‘executive housing.’
May 17, 2020 It’s the Disease, Not the GovernmentConsumer spending changed before any government restrictions were implemented.
March 8, 2020 A Decelerating Economy on the Brink of RecessionThe arrival of Covid-19 is already exacting a toll on the weakened manufacturing sector.
May 12, 2019 Taking Seriously a Socialist CritiqueWhat part of criticism of our market economy is right, and what should we do about it?
March 11, 2018 Rustbelt Cities Must Focus on Middle Class NeighborhoodsSchool quality is always the most pressing issue for middle class neighborhoods, but other amenities matter. The cost of improving amenities in communities that are likely to survive for several decades is very small.
March 1, 2015 We Need to Study, Modify and Preserve TIFIn the coming months we must better understand the characteristics of good and bad TIFs using data, not just anecdote.
September 14, 2014 Focus on Shrinking the Federal GovernmentMost of our current problems are at the local level: schools, crime, housing, unemployment, and poverty.
July 20, 2014 State Taxes and a Slowing EconomyState income taxes are a good place to try to begin understanding state economic performance.
July 6, 2014 Court Rulings Uphold FreedomSome issues should stay as matters of individual conscience, not public policy.
May 18, 2014 Hoosiers Will Pay for Better Public ServicesTaxpayers are concerned with the value of government, not the cost alone.
May 4, 2014 The Tale of Three StatesThe balance of state and local government results in noticeably different outcomes in Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia.
January 5, 2014 Economic Systems, North Korea and the ACAThe problem is that the economy we have is not a system; it is a series of markets that cannot be organized.
November 17, 2013 QE3 and the Labor MarketThe sign of a truly positive jobs report would be the decline of stock prices in anticipation of the end of QE3.
October 27, 2013 The Affordable Care Act into the FutureThe ACA must work for more than 30 million households—one-third of whom are functionally illiterate, and another third of whom have no computer or internet at home.
October 20, 2013 A Still Uncertain EconomySomething remains terribly wrong in the U.S. economy, but there are some tantalizing hints
October 13, 2013 Welcome the Debate, Even If It Ain’t PrettyThe size and scope of our government is in tension with the available dollars we can tax from households and businesses.
March 10, 2013 The Sequester of the FutureThings will get worse before they get better.
November 18, 2012 Thelma and Louise Approach the Fiscal CliffThe spending cuts of the fiscal cliff will be far less broadly injurious than most suppose.
October 7, 2012 Bernanke Visits IndyBernanke maintained that monetary policy was not a panacea for our economic woes.
July 22, 2012 Job Creation and DestructionGovernments don't create jobs, businesses do.
July 9, 2012 Smart Cuts in GovernmentIt is often argued that government workers are overpaid and over-benefitted, but I think that the composition of the government workforce is a more pressing matter.
April 2, 2012 The Joke's on Us with Social SecurityIf treated as a financial investment, Social Security is a really very effective way to destroy wealth.
May 28, 2007 Can a Democracy Manage Budgets? "...in the case of Indiana’s sales tax on gasoline, a move to suspend the tax would have some especially bad repercussions."

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