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Previewing the Long-Term Effects of TariffsThe dominant effect of the Trump tariffs will be to raise production costs on almost every American manufacturing firm.

It’s TDS to Suppose These Tariffs Are WorkingTrump has pushed the U.S. into an economic downturn that will be especially hurtful to Hoosiers.

Trump’s Tariff Recession Is HereMy new forecast, completed in late April, predicts a national recession began as early as March in reaction to Trump’s tarriffs.

Two Key Economic Lessons in One BillHoosiers face trade-offs and opportunity costs in the wake of SEA1.

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Commentaries tagged with migration and population change

April 6, 2025 American Scientific Brain Drain Is Now HappeningUniversities need to be free, not conformist.
March 23, 2025 What the Census Tells Hoosiers About the FutureKeeping things the same really isn’t an option for communities.
March 9, 2025 A 1960s Rural Development PlanFarming and manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back, even as we hit new production records.
February 23, 2025 I Am Confused by Tax ProposalsIndiana, like almost every other government in the world, taxes three things: wealth, consumption and income.
February 9, 2025 The Medicaid DilemmaFor every one new job created in Indiana since 2010, we’ve had more than two new people enroll in Medicaid.
February 2, 2025 The Great State of Illiana (or is it Indinois?)Deep economic divergence has gripped the United States for four decades.
January 19, 2025 My 2025 ForecastThe Hoosier economy is growing, but at the same time falling further behind the rest of the nation.
January 5, 2025 School Choice Is a Good, Not Great Thing… Sort ofThe benefits are overestimated and misunderstood.
November 17, 2024 The Degrowth Movement Is Wrong and ImmoralDegrowthers are terribly mistaken in three big ways.
November 3, 2024 My Apology to LogansportThe city is well known as an immigration success story in the Midwest.
October 20, 2024 Lessons in Home PricesIndiana’s dominant housing problem is a surplus of homes that are unlikely to ever again be occupied.
September 22, 2024 Indiana’s Small Towns Need More ImmigrantsMany Midwestern counties are in their fourth or fifth decade of population decline.
September 15, 2024 IEDC’s Unhappy 20th AnniversaryIndiana must become a place where education and skills of people form the central mission of state and local economic development policies.
September 1, 2024 Urban Growth Dominates the US Economy – and Puts Rural Places at RiskEducation becomes more important as more people become educated.
July 21, 2024 Why Don’t We Learn from Economic Development Failures?Educational attainment alone is now a more powerful predictor of a region’s economic success than everything else combined.
June 30, 2024 Silly Tax Cut ProposalsIn Indiana, a 1 percent increase in the average tax rate leads to a 2 percent increase in population growth.
June 23, 2024 Some Good Reasons for Partisan Perceptions About the EconomyThe gap between rich places and poor places is growing in more ways than one.
June 2, 2024 Regional Cities Initiative, an Economic BoonBehind the concept was a clear understanding that most economic growth was happening in cities with solid quality-of-life investments.
April 14, 2024 The Midwest Is Struggling in the Post-COVID WorldWe are chasing past economic glories rather than pursuing economic opportunities of the future.
April 7, 2024 What Caused the Midwest to Thrive? EducationIndiana was universally literate before England was.
March 24, 2024 The Lasting Effect of the KKK in IndianaIndiana had the highest share of residents in the Klan at any time in history.
March 3, 2024 Indiana Needs More Municipal FlexibilityCities aren’t just critical to Indiana’s economy, they are the future of Indiana’s economy.
January 7, 2024 What Does New GDP Data Tell Us About the Hoosier Economy?More than half of all the state’s new residents since 2020 live in one of two counties.
December 24, 2023 Leaving Behind Dickensian PovertyThis Christmas holiday is not about worldly wealth, but it is a time of giving thanks for the many blessings we enjoy.
October 22, 2023 Economic Perceptions Driven by Educational and Geographic Differences in ProsperityThe geography of economic opportunity is shrinking.
September 3, 2023 Work From Home Is Here to StayAt least 1 million Hoosiers work from home at least one day per week.
August 13, 2023 A More Thoughtful Understanding of Quality of LifeRunning through a hypothetical list of amenities is the worst way to think about improving quality of life.
July 30, 2023 The Midwest Doesn’t Have a Housing Crisis, It Has a Neighborhood CrisisIn many areas, a new home cannot sell for the cost of construction.
July 9, 2023 Human Capital Is the Source of ProsperitySuccessful places are both good for business and good for families.
June 25, 2023 Growing and Declining Places Have Different ChallengesThe Midwest came of age at a time when natural amenities and recreational opportunities played only a modest role in prosperity or migration.
May 14, 2023 Re-Thinking Economic Development A large share of the most mobile families—perhaps half—no longer need to live near where they work.
April 23, 2023 Economic Opportunity Is Now in High Quality of Life PlacesAs Americans grew richer, we began to value more than just economic opportunity in our location choices.
March 19, 2023 Remote Work Through the Eyes of Three 20-SomethingsRemote work is here to stay.
March 12, 2023 Remote Work and Labor MarketsThere are more remote workers today than there are immigrants in the U.S.
March 12, 2023 Remote Work and Labor MarketsThere are more remote workers today than there are immigrants in the U.S.
March 5, 2023 The Amish in IndianaIt is hard not to draw similarities between the Amish and newer immigrant groups.
February 26, 2023 Subsidizing Builders Fixes the Wrong Housing ProblemRemote workers and their families can now live wherever they wish.
February 26, 2023 Subsidizing Builders Fixes the Wrong Housing ProblemRemote workers and their families can now live wherever they wish.
January 15, 2023 Three Types of Public DebtAll types of public debt are effectively transfers of wealth from the future to our present selves.
January 15, 2023 Three Types of Public DebtAll types of public debt are effectively transfers of wealth from the future to our present selves.
January 8, 2023 Remote Work Is Indiana’s Biggest Opportunity and RiskThere are now more Hoosiers in remote work than there are in manufacturing and logistics combined.
December 11, 2022 READI Grant Is Great for Most of IndianaBusinesses and households value public services more highly than public infrastructure spending.
November 27, 2022 Economic Optimism and Worry on ThanksgivingThe balance of power between freedom and tyranny has never been this favorable.
November 13, 2022 The Timing of Economic PolicyCentral planning of economic activity likely will result in wasteful, ineffective policies.
November 13, 2022 The Timing of Economic PolicyCentral planning of economic activity likely will result in wasteful, ineffective policies.
November 6, 2022 Adopt the Governor’s Public Health Commission Report Proposals Hoosier health problems are in areas that are the most susceptible to public health interventions.
October 9, 2022 A Recession Is Time to Think About the Long TermManufacturing employment is now a smaller part of our economy than it was in previous downturns.
August 14, 2022 SB1 Will Be Deeply Damaging to Indiana’s EconomyPublic policy is about trade-offs, it is just imperative to know what they are.
July 31, 2022 Trying to Measure the Effect of Abortion Bans on Our EconomyThe effect we see right now is vastly different from what we’ll see in a few years.
July 31, 2022 Trying to Measure the Effect of Abortion Bans on Our EconomyThe effect we see right now is vastly different from what we’ll see in a few years.
July 24, 2022 Why Are Rich Places Growing and Poor Places in Decline?To participate in a new economy, a community’s workforce must possess the ability to absorb new skills that may be vastly different from what they currently know.
July 24, 2022 Why Are Rich Places Growing and Poor Places in Decline?To participate in a new economy, a community’s workforce must possess the ability to absorb new skills that may be vastly different from what they currently know.
July 10, 2022 The Tensions of Economic Policy in a Volatile TimeDiffering political views can lead to very different policy choices.
July 3, 2022 The 246th Anniversary of ‘The Great Experiment’Our nation may be at its most divided, but I have great hope.
May 22, 2022 The Undersupply of College Graduates Is Clobbering Indiana’s EconomyNationwide, about 8 in 10 of all net new jobs go to 4-year college graduates.
May 1, 2022 Lilly CEO Speaks to Indiana’s FutureIndiana must better educate a higher share of its young adults and make more communities into places they’d like to live.
April 3, 2022 The U.S. Job Creation MachineNo U.S. state, and very few cities, have more ‘global’ jobs than they did in the spring of 1992.
April 3, 2022 The U.S. Job Creation MachineNo U.S. state, and very few cities, have more ‘global’ jobs than they did in the spring of 1992.
March 27, 2022 A Tough Two Decades for the Hoosier EconomyMost of Indiana’s job growth this century has been in low-wage work.
March 20, 2022 Quality of Life Spending Is a Conservative PolicyHome prices and wages signal the desirability of communities.
January 23, 2022 Indiana’s Long-Term Economic Prospects Are PoorState policymakers should be deeply alarmed about a return to a ‘normal’ economy.
January 16, 2022 Americans Are Quietly Realizing Dr. King’s VisionMLK’s words are part of the canon of American political writing, and belong to a long tradition of Enlightenment thought.
December 26, 2021 Some Lessons from Hallmark Christmas MoviesA lot of economic ideas are packed into Hallmark movies.
December 19, 2021 READI Grant a Big Success and Important PolicyClusters of cities and counties do better with sharing ideas, vetting proposals and hiring talented staff.
November 7, 2021 READI Grants Already a SuccessThe READI Grant program asks communities to identify and prioritize their long-term development projects.
October 10, 2021 COVID and the Risks of Medical Care Delays As we think about the longer-term effects of COVID, we must consider how many people have deferred medical care because of the disease.
September 12, 2021 Lessons from Afghan Refugees and September 11Our fight against the extremists who attacked us 20 years ago is ongoing.
July 11, 2021 What Is ‘Quality of Place?’When choosing a place to live, workers consider the wages they will earn against the cost of housing and access to amenities.
June 13, 2021 Some Early Census Results for IndianaPeople are the driving force of economic growth.
June 13, 2021 Some Early Census Results for IndianaPeople are the driving force of economic growth.
April 25, 2021 Polarization of Jobs and PlacesUnfortunately, short-term spending policies aren't likely have much long-term effect on the decline of middle-wage jobs.
April 25, 2021 Polarization of Jobs and PlacesUnfortunately, short-term spending policies aren't likely have much long-term effect on the decline of middle-wage jobs.
April 18, 2021 The Post-COVID World Favors High Quality-of-Place CommunitiesBetween 23 million and 35 million households will find themselves newly unencumbered by the need to live within an easy daily commute to work.
April 18, 2021 The Post-COVID World Favors High Quality-of-Place CommunitiesBetween 23 million and 35 million households will find themselves newly unencumbered by the need to live within an easy daily commute to work.
April 11, 2021 Economic Development Should Be About Value, Not CostIn the late 1970s–80s, you were taught that low tax rates and capital investment were the key to growth and prosperity, but that theory has not panned out as anticipated.
March 7, 2021 Our Biggest Economic Challenge Is School Funding Better educational attainment both causes and is caused by a better economy.
March 7, 2021 Our Biggest Economic Challenge Is School Funding Better educational attainment both causes and is caused by a better economy.
February 21, 2021 Questions from an Economic ForecastThe economic recovery is in the hands of vaccine distributors, not economic policymakers.
February 21, 2021 Questions from an Economic ForecastThe economic recovery is in the hands of vaccine distributors, not economic policymakers.
February 14, 2021 Stop Restricting Indianapolis GrowthIn the 21st century, a full 85 percent of the state’s population growth happened within the Indianapolis metro area.
December 27, 2020 Some Thoughts on the Coal EconomyMany of the cities and towns born in the Industrial Revolution have lost their original economic reason for being.
November 29, 2020 Regional Divergence and Local TaxesIn recent decades, nearly all large urban places thrived, while smaller cities and rural places mostly stagnated.
October 25, 2020 Indiana’s Hidden Fiscal DeficitSince 2009, Indiana slipped in every key measure of long-term growth.
October 4, 2020 Some Thoughts on the Rural-Urban DivideRural places are culturally and ethnically diverse and face different challenges from urban places.
August 30, 2020 Gresham’s Law and Subsidized ApartmentsTax dollars that should’ve gone to schools, public safety and other purposes will now supporting new ‘executive housing.’
August 30, 2020 Gresham’s Law and Subsidized ApartmentsTax dollars that should’ve gone to schools, public safety and other purposes will now supporting new ‘executive housing.’
June 21, 2020 Changing Dynamics in Modern FatherhoodFamily formation varies depending on race, income, and education level.
April 19, 2020 No Better Time to Rethink Economic Development SpendingCongress made clear that many not-for-profits provide local benefits that make the nation stronger.
February 23, 2020 Returning to Economic Growth Requires PatienceThere are no quick solutions, only long ones.
January 12, 2020 Fixing Regional InequalityMarket forces dictate much of the advantages and disadvantages of each place.
January 12, 2020 Fixing Regional InequalityMarket forces dictate much of the advantages and disadvantages of each place.
January 5, 2020 Growing Regional Inequality Is the Challenge of Our AgeAn educated workforce began to replace physical capital as a factor explaining economic growth.
May 19, 2019 Our New Immigration StudyNew immigrants in Indiana should be especially welcomed.
May 19, 2019 Our New Immigration StudyNew immigrants in Indiana should be especially welcomed.
April 28, 2019 Immigration Was the Bright Spot in the 2018 Indiana Population DataOnly 15 of Indiana’s 92 counties grew faster than the nation as a whole.
April 7, 2019 Diverging Regional EconomiesThe places that are most eager to attract new factories are far less likely to get them.
February 17, 2019 Housing Demand in Indiana’s CommunitiesThe traditional economic factors of supply and demand explain nearly all new home construction in Indiana’s counties.
January 27, 2019 Local Newspapers Are Key in Reporting CorruptionResearch suggests that newspaper closures lead to higher costs of local government borrowing.
December 30, 2018 Understanding Job Numbers in 2018An announcement of new jobs reflects only one small part of the total job creation and destruction that occurs in an economy.
December 23, 2018 Thinking About Economic Growth Like an EconomistEconomists and businesses think about community growth in very different ways.
November 24, 2018 Thanksgiving for Economic Growth and Human FlourishingAcross the developed world, poverty is no longer the result of economic conditions.
September 23, 2018 Critiques of Capitalism All About State and Local PoliciesYoung people turning to our workforce development system will find it focused wholly on supplying workers to businesses rather than offering a resource for career-minded adults.
August 5, 2018 Midwest Must Save Middle Class NeighborhoodsIf your community isn’t thriving, your problems are far deeper than you suppose.
June 24, 2018 Temporal Inequality Is Much Larger Than Income Inequality TodayFrom antiquity to about 1650, the average person existed at the margin of subsistence.
June 17, 2018 Midwest Communities Need Fact-Based Leadership, Not BromidesFar too many people view their city or county as a business with a marketing problem.
May 20, 2018 School Referenda and Local GovernmentRecent examples reinforce the simple notions of local governance.
May 13, 2018 Midwest Growth Was Always About PeopleFactories came to Indiana because it possessed one truly great asset—people.
May 13, 2018 Midwest Growth Was Always About PeopleFactories came to Indiana because it possessed one truly great asset—people.
April 1, 2018 Think More Deeply About Community Strengths and WeaknessesSome forces pull people to cities, while others move them out.
April 1, 2018 Think More Deeply About Community Strengths and WeaknessesSome forces pull people to cities, while others move them out.
March 11, 2018 Rustbelt Cities Must Focus on Middle Class NeighborhoodsSchool quality is always the most pressing issue for middle class neighborhoods, but other amenities matter. The cost of improving amenities in communities that are likely to survive for several decades is very small.
February 26, 2018 School Choice Saves CommunitiesAll school choice did was let students flee underperforming schools without forcing families to move.
February 4, 2018 Most Indiana Counties Should Stop Pursuing Economic GrowthEighty or more Indiana counties are in absolute or relative decline.
December 3, 2017 Indiana Doesn’t Have a Jobs ProblemBusinesses in Indiana offer jobs that far outnumber the unemployed.
November 19, 2017 Population Decline Is No MysteryMost folks in declining cities and towns seemingly have no idea why they are in decline.
October 22, 2017 Rustbelt Was Losing People Long Before They Lost Factory JobsIn the 1960s, population decline was already evident in the fated Rustbelt cities.
October 15, 2017 The Lessons of GDP DataPlaces that are doing well have shifted their focus to attracting people, not factories.
July 23, 2017 Automation, Trade and Urbanization Require More Resilient People and PlacesOur study implies that regional inequality might be poised for a big increase.
June 25, 2017 Some Economics of Food DesertsFood deserts are more about poor places than poor people.
June 11, 2017 Illinois a Joking Matter No LongerThe scale of Chicago’s problems are eye-popping.
April 30, 2017 Retail Apocalypse or Business as Usual?Long-term change is underway in the retail industry.
February 26, 2017 Are We on the Cusp of a New Federalist Approach to Government?State-level policy provides options for residents who can vote with their feet.
February 26, 2017 Are We on the Cusp of a New Federalist Approach to Government?State-level policy provides options for residents who can vote with their feet.
January 22, 2017 The Wrong Political Message Won’t Help Our EconomyTo create jobs, focus on places, not businesses.
October 2, 2016 Economic Changes Mean Primacy of Place MattersMaking cities good for workers is good for business.
September 11, 2016 Cut the Tax Cut Debate, Spend the Money WiselyLet’s focus on workers, not businesses.
April 3, 2016 Population Numbers Offer Warning to Indiana We should shift our focus from rural to urban communities.
October 4, 2015 Lessons from a Public LectureResearch now convincingly argues that relative city size is mostly influenced by the location choices of more educated households and agglomerations.
June 28, 2015 Some Truth about Hoosier School BudgetsToday’s funding is tied to students, not schools.
April 19, 2015 Indiana Desperately Needs the Regional Cities InitiativeEighty of our 92 counties are suffering from a serious decline in population and economic growth.
September 8, 2013 Income, Amenities and Affordable HousingPerceived value of employment and quality of school districts are two factors affecting personal income in our communities.
June 7, 2010 The Economics of Education Migration causes brain drain and exacerbates the human capital differences between regions.
July 1, 2005 My City is Bigger than Your City "A glance at township growth patterns reveals that supposedly shrinking places like Bloomington, Evansville or Fort Wayne are in fact surrounded by jurisdictions moving in the other direction."
April 18, 2003 The Message in Population Movements "The development problems faced by the faster and slower growing regions of the state are quite different in nature."

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