It’s the beginning of the month, so it must be time to analyze another batch of employment statistics for the U.S. economy.  As economic indicators go, the employment report is one of the best.  Not only is it timely and comprehensive, but it also describes an aspect of the economy that we can all immediately grasp – our jobs.

When it comes right down to it, our economy ultimately runs on confidence, and there’s nothing that speaks louder about a business person’s view of the future than opening the hiring gates.  Strong hiring reverberates throughout the economy, giving workers a confidence in their own economic security that ultimately fuels spending.  And, as a practical matter, we need positive net hiring in the economy simply to keep up with growth in the labor force.

That’s about all that the U.S. economy delivered last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The preliminary report of96,000 net new jobs created nationwide in September is probably enough to keep up with labor force growth, but not enough to meaningfully impact the labor market otherwise.  After adding 885,000 jobs in March, April and May, the national economy has settled down to a much more measured rate of job creation.

For those hoping for a quick rebound from the soft consumer spending levels of recent months, the September jobs report is a big disappointment.  With the direct stimulus of tax cuts largely spent, and with the boom of home refinancing apparently over, job growth may be the only fuel left in the tank to support a return to the 4-5 percent annual rates of growth in consumer spending we’d become accustomed to.

Did the disruptions of four consecutive hurricanes battering the southeast distort the September data?  It’s hard to assess, but even if they did, there’s no denying the decelerating trend in job creation.  And that’s making the downward revisions to forecasts of overall economic growth in the second half of this year look more and more accurate.

But there’s more to assessing labor market performance than simply stacking the job totals like cord wood.  The nature of the job market, as well as the way we measure it, has changed in profound ways that lurk behind these anonymous statistics.

To begin with, there is evidence that what some have called the biggest economic event of the twentieth century – the rapid increase in the labor participation rate of women – has begun to flatten out in recent years.  hovered around 56 percent, after growing at double digit rates for the previous 40 years.

Since the mid-1990’s the percentage of women 16 years and older who work has  That has resulted in slower overall labor force growth, reducing the pressure on the economy to create jobs.

Another recent development has been the growth in size and importance of the temporary help services industry.  With the meteoric growth and specialization of the services industries overall, and the increasing frequency and cost of job-termination litigation, companies have turned to temp agencies not only to fill their immediate staffing needs, but also as an extended “rehearsal” for prospective permanent job hires.  The monthly changes in temp hiring have become an important leading indicator of where overall hiring is going.

Finally, there is the new way statistical agencies keep score on job growth to contend with.  In 2001 most major economic data series started using a new classification system, and it has thrown a curve ball into just about every trend and rule of thumb we have.  Worried about growth in manufacturing jobs?  What was called manufacturing in 2000 might not be today, and we’re still getting used to that unpleasant fact.

But come next month, we’ll be hungry for more data nonetheless.