Much has been written in the last few weeks about what the new year might have in store for us. A lot of businesses are asking themselves the same question. Judging from the most recent reports on the U.S. economy, the cloud of gloom that descended over sales and profits last year has yet to break. Yet prudent planners are nonetheless looking ahead to try to anticipate what the post-recession economy will look like.

Economic recoveries, like the recessions that precede them, come in all shapes and sizes. But the crucial question on most peoples' minds can be boiled down to a single letter. That is, which letter of the alphabet most closely resembles the graph of our future economic performance?

The most optimistic forecasters speak of a "V" recovery, or an abrupt turnaround that makes up ground as quickly as we lost it. Such recoveries are not without precedent, especially on the heels of longer, deeper recessions. Many of the highest single-quarter growth rates ever recorded for the U.S. economy have occurred in the immediate aftermath of a recession.

But more sanguine observers expect to see a "U" recovery in the year ahead. In such a scenario we would not see all sectors of the economy heal at the same time. Indeed, a slow emergence from recession will feel, for many of us, much like the recession itself. Fortunately for the Indiana economy, the industrial part of the overall economy is well poised to spring up off its sick bed earlier than some others.

The downward spiral of business spending on capital goods, now more than twelve months running, is simply not sustainable in the current economic climate. Stable prices, low interest rates, and reasonable prospects ahead for consumer spending are producing too many profit opportunities for businesses to sit on their hands much longer. When that turnaround happens, it will show up in order books and work schedules across the state.

Before we get to that point, however, we will doubtless have to weather a few more employment reports on the U.S. economy like the one we have for December. Although employment changes always trail the movements in the overall economy, there's otherwise little positive spin one can put on the news that another 187,000 private sector jobs were lost in the final month of the year. That helped push the total of all non-farm sector jobs lost since the recession began to 1.4 million.

For those keeping their eyes peeled for signs of recovery, three specific sectors of the employment report deserve special attention. One is the temporary help services industry, which has been badly battered in this downturn, but could be the first to rebound in a recovery. Another is the broader Business Services category of industries, whose employment levels correlate well with business expansion. Finally, the employment in the electronic equipment manufacturing industry reflects our on and off love affair with gadgets and technology, which has fueled so much growth in the past.

All three of these sectors took a beating in December, just as they have for at least three months running. But their turnaround in the coming months will likely tell us when the worst of our economic troubles are behind us.