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January 9, 2004

The Mystery of Declining Savings

First it was Alan Greenspan's turn to bask in the spotlight of public adoration.  "Maestro," they called the Federal Reserve Chair, as the economy of the 1990's seemed to float on air, never to fall.  But when the stock bubble burst, they took the Fed chief's halo away, and he became just another economist.  Now some want to give credit for the 1990's expansion to Robert Rubin, the Clintonadministration's whiz kid Treasury Secretary. Still others give the mantle of praise to Paul Volker, the tough-minded Reagan-era Fed chief who stopped the early 1980's inflation in its tracks.

But if any of these men are your economic heroes, consider this.  All served in important policymaking roles during a time when a less ballyhooed transformation took place in the American economy.  That is when American consumers turned their backs on their savings accounts.

Whether you think it is important or not, the facts are undeniable.  As late as 1984, Americans saved more than 10 cents out of every dollar they cleared after taxes. Moreover, that level of saving, give or take a penny or two, had persisted for two and a half decades up to that point.

But then our savings behavior underwent a remarkable change for the worse.  More than fifteen years ago we became a net debtor nation. Barely two cents of every dollar of income today finds its way into savings.

These points are not in dispute.  There is wide disagreement, however, as to what implications this behavior shift has for the future.  After all, despite our worries about credit card debt and bankruptcies, the national economy has charged ahead over this same time-- thanks to a generous inflow of foreign capital -- to become the envy of the world.

But a more fundamental question is this -- how did it happen?  What happened in the mid-1980's to change our collective mindset about how much we should save?

It's a difficult question, because so many things about the American economy changed during this same time.  One of the most obvious has been the behavior of inflation. The lower inflation of the Volker era Fed, together with the demonstrated toughness needed to keep future prices in check, changed our expectations for the future.  That made interest rates fall, including rates paid on bonds and passbook savings

Did people start saving less because the rates on these  "risk-free" investments went down?   That's hard to understand, because after taking lower inflation into account, the real return on savings changed very little.

Another big change has been the performance of the stock market.  After moving sideways for more than a decade, stock prices really began to take off coming out of the early 1980's, with only a few dips since.  Those big returns have allowed us to continue to accumulate financial wealth even as we slow our new contributions to our portfolios.

But have Americans really stopped storing dollars away for the future because they are wealthy enough already?  That doesn't quite hold water, either.  After all, a booming market makes spending on ourselves today even more expensive, since we could be putting those same dollars in growth stocks.

There's a whole different side of the story to explore as well, namely, spending.  Credit cards, zero down payment loans, and other forms of easy money have experienced explosive growth throughout the economy. Does the mere fact that we can borrow make us do it?

Worries about the future generally make one save more.  But Americans are saving less. And that has some of us worried.

Link to this commentary: https://commentaries.cberdata.org/338/the-mystery-of-declining-savings

Tags: finance


About the Author

Pat Barkey none@example.com

Patrick Barkey is director of the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research. He served previously as Director of the Bureau of Business Research (now the Center for Business and Economic Research) at Ball State University, overseeing and participating in a wide variety of projects in labor market research and state and regional economic policy issues. Note: The views expressed here are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of funders, associations, any entity of Ball State University, or its governing body.

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