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August 11, 2008

State's AAA Bond Ranking indicates Healthy Economy

Sometimes obscure economic issues matter a great deal in our economic wellbeing. One prime example is the news that Indiana’s bond rankings have now risen to the highest level, the highly coveted AAA ranking by Standard and Poor’s. Why that happened, what it means and why it is important should matter to Hoosiers.

To begin with, all states, like virtually all households, borrow money to ease cash flow issues. States also borrow money to make infrastructure investments. Just like households, government essentially takes out a mortgage on big durable things like roads and bridges. The only meaningful difference is that governments borrow their money not from a bank, savings and loan or credit union, but from a bond market.

Bond markets house the least dashing and romantic figures in all the world of economics and finance. This makes them dull figures indeed, and well it is so. Bond markets are the first to signal economic changes by bond sellers. They are the canary in the coal mine, for the very good reason that they hold long term securities backed only by the promise to pay (and perhaps an insurance policy). So markets for state and municipal bonds tell the story of a regions’ economy far more accurately than any advertising campaign. This is why Hoosiers should be rejoicing at the news that our state has received an AAA ranking. 

The bond rankings for the state bond market are based upon a large number of factors. One of which is the condition of the economy in the broader region (Great Lakes and Midwest). Since our bordering states are languishing through economic conditions ranked as merely poor (like Kentucky or Ohio) to fantastically dismal (Michigan), I would not have predicted Indiana’s bond rankings would have risen.

It is clear that the persistent drum-roll of good economic news coming from the Hoosier state was enough to convince bond rating agencies to look closely at the State. They clearly liked what they found in Indiana. Our nationally recognized property tax reform, the robust budget surplus (one of the few in the nation), and the dogged resilience of our states’ economy all factored into the new bond ratings.

But, I think the dark horse in the bond ratings is the financing deal we wrought with the Indiana Toll Road. Public-private partnerships are just about the only way to improve transportation infrastructure, and Indiana couldn’t have picked a better moment to do so.

But our newly minted high class bond ranking doesn’t just give us peace of mind about the state of the State. Several studies suggest we will save over 10 basis points in borrowing costs. This means a savings to taxpayers of at least $500 million over the next thirty years. It could be several times this amount.

The new bond rating is equivalent to putting at least an additional $200 back into each household’s pockets. Makes you wish we could do a few more toll road deals doesn’t it?

Link to this commentary: https://commentaries.cberdata.org/101/state-s-aaa-bond-ranking-indicates-healthy-economy

Tags: finance


About the Author

Michael Hicks cberdirector@bsu.edu

Michael J. Hicks, PhD, is the director of the Center for Business and Economic Research and the George and Frances Ball distinguished professor of economics in the Miller College of Business at Ball State University. Hicks earned doctoral and master’s degrees in economics from the University of Tennessee and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Virginia Military Institute. He has authored two books and more than 60 scholarly works focusing on state and local public policy, including tax and expenditure policy and the impact of Wal-Mart on local economies.

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